Forget passive, how 'bout stupid aggressive?

Robb · #1 07-09-2004, 05:30 PM

I don't know what possessed me this hand but oh well.

Party 15: 10-handed-- I remember having no notes on the opponents.

UTG raises, MP & LP call. I 3-bet on the button with black tens. Only UTG, MP & LP call.

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]:

They check, I bet, they call.

Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]:
They check, I bet, UTG & MP call, LP drops.

River 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]:
They check, I bet, they fold.

Is every street debatable? I think the outcome was a once in a blue moon occurrence.

Critique appreciated.

Regards,
Jamie

ike · #2 07-09-2004, 06:01 PM

Looks fine until the river. Its not the fact that you're almost certainly behind that makes this bet wrong, its that they'll never fold the winner and rarely call with a loser. If you check behind here you're winning just as often and saving a bet when someone has a scared jack or something similar. I'm guessing they finally gave up on hands along the lines of AQ and ATs.

Robb · #3 07-09-2004, 08:11 PM

Hi ike,

Right after the hand I thought, "Man that was a dumb river bet" After ruminating a but, I'm not 100% positive.

I know it's been said here often that it doesn't pay to bluff/semi-bluff on Party in certain circumstances.
However, there are 11.66 BB in the pot by the river - is there an 8-9% chance someone will fold a better hand? Specifically, a hand like QJ/J10?

Sometimes people change their mind when the pfr shows strength on the river into more than 1 opponent. My guess is that the percentage is very low though......in the 1-10% range.

But I do think I was probably up against AQ & A10 on the river.

Regards,
Jamie

ike · #4 07-09-2004, 08:18 PM

They have to fold that large a percentage of their entire pool of winning hands, not just that large a percentage of their QJ's. That seems EXTREMELY unlikely. If they ever call a loser this number goes down, but that also would be very surprising.

2005 · #5 07-09-2004, 08:46 PM

I think there is an extremely slim chance that anyone folds a better hand than your TT. Any J that has called this far is going to call the river and they would be right in doing so. The river bet was bad, but the rest of the hand I liked alot. If you check the turn you put yourself in jeopardy of having to fold a winner on the river. Ni Han.

Gavin