SnG Bubble Quiz

[eastbay]

You're on the button holding 66 with stacks, after posting 150/300 blinds, from BB moving left:

BB SB YOU CO
2500 2500 2500 2500

Let's considering options of push/fold here. It's possible there are other options, but assuming you're going to push/fold, what do you choose here?

What if BB is a shorter stack, with bigger stack behind?

1500 2500 2500 3500

Then let's say BB and SB are shorter stacked, with bigger stack behind?

1500 1500 2500 4500

are you more or less inclined to move in now?

What if there's two shorter stacks but big stack is in your way?

1500 4500 2500 1500

Does it matter if big stack is the BB?

4500 1500 2500 1500

Discuss.

eastbay

[chill888]

This is a complex and great topic. BUT [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If my choices are only push or fold, I would fold absolutely every time, regardless of players.

The only way I would push would be if my wife was in labor and her water broke and she was bitching cause my game was still going on.

You are covered in all situations. What are the odds that at least one of the 3 has a PP above 66? I don't know, but off top of my head it is in the area of 10%.

We haven't even started talking about other hands.
If I'm called I can only pray for a coin toss and must fear facing a 4-1 shot. Patience grasshopper.

One of the main ways to cash is to go make a sandwich and let two guys from this forum bet their 66 and 77. Every extra hand i play is another chance someone else busts or I get dealt AA.

Now, if smaller bets were allowed - depends on my opponents. But you wouldn't let me. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Daliman]

I'm not sure if you realize this, but the way you have structured the hand, you are removing the CO from play. Also, not to mince, but your scenario has 10450 chips in play...

Given those parameters, my decisions are..
1. Fold. There are better spots for your money.
2. Push. SB isn't calling with many hands, BB still has a foldable stack, and likely is behind if he calls.
3. Fold. You are more likely to be called here by either of the blinds, and folding will often spur a blind battle, where the SB will often push allin with a VERY wide range of hands, and the BB will call with a wider range of hands than usual, given that this is often a steal move by the SB and he will now be the only SS left at the table.
4. Fold. Let the big stack do his job. THe CO is about to pay 30% of his stack in blinds the next 2 hands, so opportunities abound.
5. Fold. The SB will push into the BB here with any ace, any 20, any pair, and many other hands on a steal attempt, and BB will call most of the time with same.

[chill888]

I must say i looked at the order and assumed Hero was CO and that CO was Button

[stupidsucker]

You're on the button holding 66 with stacks, after posting 150/300 blinds, from BB moving left:

BB SB YOU CO
2500 2500 2500 2500
---Here with complete even stacks(assuming its folded around to me)
I am going with Push. There is only about a 7% chance that one of the 2 players left has an over pair. This is my only main concern. I think everyone will be less inclined to call with crap with the stacks this even and I have great FE.


Let's considering options of push/fold here. It's possible there are other options, but assuming you're going to push/fold, what do you choose here?

What if BB is a shorter stack, with bigger stack behind?

1500 2500 2500 3500
---Push

Then let's say BB and SB are shorter stacked, with bigger stack behind?

1500 1500 2500 4500
--Push

are you more or less inclined to move in now?

What if there's two shorter stacks but big stack is in your way?

1500 4500 2500 1500
--Im still pushing here
Does it matter if big stack is the BB?

4500 1500 2500 1500
--I am still going to push my 2500 can take out a good chunk and the short stacks arent in dure trouble yet.


Discuss.

I push every time because I am out to win not get ITM. I cant see one time where the short stacks were too small to not push or the big stack was too big compared to my stack not to push. With two people left to act the chances of someone having an over pair is less then 8%. All other hands I am ahead slightly in a coinflip, but I have good FE. ALso I think there is a decent chance that 22-55 might call me. I am curious to see what others wrote.

Edit: Looks like I am too aggressive... good to know.
I will break down the odds and post my thoughts soon.

[Daliman]

I'd like to add that, even though myself use a much more reseved strategy, pushing in ANY of these situations is not a BAD play. I play them differently than most because I am trying to find a better way than ABC-aggressiveness.

[stupidsucker]

Ok..
What hands can call you?
what hands will call you?

77-AA 8%
A7-AK, KT-KQ,QT-QJ,JT 12%

These are the only hands I think you MIGHT get a call from.

To pose another question Lets say you are the BB or SB.. what hands do you make a call with if the Button pushes with those respective stacks?


Ok so 20% of the time we get a call and 12% of the time we are ahead. Lets also assume we never suck out when we face an overpair, and that we only win exactly 50% of the time when we face overcards.

80% of the time we suck up the blinds CHip EV is 450+
8% of the time we lose
12% of the time we coinflip so 6% of the time we lose 6% we win

that means we lose pushing here only 14% of the time(only when we are covered)

This doesnt even take into account the amount of times someone calls with 22-55 (You cant say no one will if they will call with hands like TJ or QT) Also the times they might call with A6-A2.

I am out to win, and with all stacks equal you only have a 75% chance to move on.

[RobGW]

I would push everytime as I want to win. The blinds are too high and are coming around too fast to wait for something better. The times I bust out in 4th will be made up for by the times I win. I think I see what you are trying to get at but imo it just makes more sense to be ultra aggressive and either take the blinds down or take someone out or be taken out.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok..



that means we lose pushing here only 14% of the time(only when we are covered)



[/ QUOTE ]


1. I agree that pushing is not a horrible play in any of these these positions.

2. Wow only a 14% chance of going broke on this one hand? I hate it. And use Bayes - you win the blinds when you are ahead and go broke (get called) when you are losing.


The greatest thing that ever helped good players was when bad players learned that 22 beats Ako heads up. All of a sudden a bunch of fools think that means that 22 is a good hand and better hand than Ak. LOL

Now I may be wrong on the analysis of this hand BUT let me give you a fallacy similar to 22 being a good hand.
People keep posting:

"I play to win, dude" thus I will be recklessly
aggressive.

"You are a rock dude" and don't play to win.

A very profitable fallacy.

[stupidsucker]

Why are we talking about 22?

Also pushing is a far cry from calling.

What hands are YOU as the BB going to call with if the button pushes?

Let me answer for you.

You arent going to call with most of the crap I figured in, thus making the FE even higher. I also didnt figure in the times 66 will suck out on an overpair either.

Also just exactly what hands are you pushing with. 66 has over a 90% chance of being the best hand and you throw it away.

Lets take it by each situation.

1)2500 2500 2500 2500
14% of the time we go broke
6% of the time we are ITM with a great chip lead
80% of the time we take the blinds

2)1500 2500 2500 3500
80% we take the blinds
3% we double up and are ITM
3% we gain 1650 and are ITM
7% we go broke
7% we lose 1500 chips and still have 1k left
(Only a 7% chance of going broke here)

3)1500 1500 2500 4500
80% to get the blinds
0% going broke
14% losing 1500 in chips
6% ITM now with a decent chip lead

4)1500 4500 2500 1500
80% we take the blinds
3% we double up but not ITM
3% we gain 1650 and are ITM
7% we go broke
7% we lose 1500 chips and still have 1k left
(Only a 7% chance of going broke here)

5)4500 1500 2500 1500
80% we take the blinds
3% we double up but not ITM
3% we gain 1650 and are ITM
7% we go broke
7% we lose 1500 chips and still have 1k left
(Only a 7% chance of going broke here)


In only 1 outa 5 of these situations do we have a 14% chance of going broke, and this is assuming that they would actualy call with hands as weak as TJ or even KJ with 4 EVEN stacks... they would have to be morons to do that.

in 3 outa 5 the chance is only 7% of oing broke.
in 1 outa 5 its 0%

I know these numbers are not perfect, but I skewed them not in favor of my argument.



Thanks Eastbay great topic. I am arguing ferociously because I truely want the answers. As of now my position is push, and I challenge anyone to show me mathmatically why its bad.