Using EV to Make HE Decisions

[brianmarc]

Disclosure: I am an experienced HE player, but not very knowledgeable about some of the math involved in playing. I play online and use some EV calculations in Excel to assist in making certian decisions.

The formula I use is EV = (BIP*OUTS)-(UC-OUTS)*BCS, where BIP=# total bets in pot; BCS:# bets to me in current street (flop, turn); UC=# unseen cards. I am so far using this to assess the "traditional" draw hands: flushes and straights. If EV > 0; call all bets, otherwise fold. My question is: Can this approach also be used for hands that have oits that could create a winning hand. Examples of these are: (a) 2 major overcards; (b) 2 minor overcards; (c)pocket under-pairs. Others?

[bigpooch]

You can't use that kind of EV calculation. No cookbook
formula exists in any but the simplest of all cases; there
are implied odds, the chances some players have some of your
outs or are drawing to the same kind of hand; not to mention
long term factors as well (albeit minimal future +EV).

Also, shouldn't your formula read something like:

EVxUC = (BIP*OUTS)-(UC-OUTS)*BCS

so the LHS isn't actually the EV but EVxUC and of course, if
you only need to know that EV>0, similarly the LHS yada yada
yada.

[brianmarc]

bp:

1. Let me see if I understand: If I'm only interested in the sign of the RHS, the calc is OK. Right? (If not, words of 1 syllable, please!).

2. Are you saying this calc is wrong also for flush and straight draws? Are you also saying that the standard draw odds (1.9 against for flush etc. cannot be used for the same reason my EV cannot be used?)

Finally: If this is not optimal formula, (a) is it a ressonable approximation; (b) do you know the exact expression?

[bigpooch]

1. Correct! (not monosyllabic though!)

2. Correct in the case of one opponent who is all-in on the
turn and may have to adjust this because of the rake. In
more complicated scenarios, it may be necessary to make an
educated guess: an EV calculation could be made in advance
for the more common situations.

[brianmarc]

bp:
You're one cryptic dude. While i undestand you may not want to spill all the beans, I'm interested in a more extensive reply to #2.

[bigpooch]

Are you just playing limit?

[brianmarc]

Yes. Sorry I shd have included that originally.