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  #1  
Old 03-11-2005, 07:04 PM
nokona13 nokona13 is offline
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Posts: 246
Default Incredibly Weak River Fold? Analysis Please!

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter

CO (t1405)
Button (t330)
SB (t940)
Hero (t870)
UTG (t1435)
MP1 (t2660)
MP2 (t360)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls t50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t150) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t200</font>, Button folds, SB calls t150.

Turn: (t550) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>, SB calls t300.

River: (t1150) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t390 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1540

Okay, not too much read on villain except he LOVES to limp in. He limped into like 1/2 - 2/3 of the pots before this, so he could have pretty much anything. But he folded routinely even to smallish bets after the flop. His only winning hand to this point was from the big blind where he flopped 333 and got paid off by two pair. So my thoughts on the flop were that this was either a blocking bet with 2 hearts or a weak bet with Ax. Should I be folding to small bet from a passive player, assuming he only bets with two pair or better? Then on the river, I'm thinking he was just being an idiot and that I can push him off a draw now. Then he calls.... How was my line here?



Oh, and I feel like this is routine, but I just want to make sure. Villain here has made various open-raises of all sizes, including min-raise, before.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

Button (t3982)
Hero (t1345)
BB (t1010)
UTG (t1663)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1345 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t945.

Flop: (t2890) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2890) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2890) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2890
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  #2  
Old 03-11-2005, 09:03 PM
AtticusFinch AtticusFinch is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 620
Default Re: Incredibly Weak River Fold? Analysis Please!

You're getting better than 3/1 odds on the river bet, and if you fold you're down to 290 chips. I think you have to call at this point. Other than that, your line looks reasonable to me, although perhaps not exactly how I'd play it.

Given your read that there's a good chance villain has Ax, you have to worry about a straight and a better two-pair. Personally, I'd decide whether I thought he had either of these and was trapping, and either check behind or push the turn based on that. A 300 chip bet really should pot-commit you here, so you're better off just pushing.
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  #3  
Old 03-11-2005, 09:04 PM
jeffraider jeffraider is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 27
Default Re: Incredibly Weak River Fold? Analysis Please!

Hmmm. It's a confusing hand, but what is he calling your raise on the flop with? I'm thinking Ax, maybe even AX of hearts. I don't think you need to worry about the straight, unless the X in AX is a 3. I think I'd call my last 320 chips here, and probably see a busted flush draw or A6, maybe a better two pair. His flop action makes the river push smell. If you lose, that's poker and if you win, you've got 2000 chips going into level four.

The AQo hand seems standard.
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  #4  
Old 03-11-2005, 09:14 PM
nokona13 nokona13 is offline
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Posts: 246
Default Re: Incredibly Weak River Fold? Analysis Please!

Thanks for the replies!

I'm not saying this is one of those times (and looking back on this hand, I'm really convinced villain has AhXh, and my fold was WEAK after no heart fell. I'm on a huge cold streak and have been getting sucked out on like no other, so I think I'm starting to see monsters under the bed...), is there ever a situation similar to this where even though you're pot committed you just smell a rat on the river and pull out with your last couple hundred and try to climb back out?
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  #5  
Old 03-11-2005, 09:58 PM
AtticusFinch AtticusFinch is offline
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Posts: 620
Default Re: Incredibly Weak River Fold? Analysis Please!

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies!

I'm not saying this is one of those times (and looking back on this hand, I'm really convinced villain has AhXh, and my fold was WEAK after no heart fell. I'm on a huge cold streak and have been getting sucked out on like no other, so I think I'm starting to see monsters under the bed...), is there ever a situation similar to this where even though you're pot committed you just smell a rat on the river and pull out with your last couple hundred and try to climb back out?

[/ QUOTE ]

The conventional wisdom is no, because you should never make a bet that pot commits you. Whenever you are inclined to do so, you should just push instead. If you follow this advice, you'll never run into this type of decision.

That being said, there will be times when a particular line of play lands you here for one reason or another. I say trust your instincts, but only up to a point. If you smell a rat and have 250 left and the pot is 600, you can fold if you are confident in your read. If it's 6000, push and pray, read be damned (unless you're SURE you're dead, e.g. when you can't beat the board).

The real trick is arranging it so you can smell the rat BEFORE you're pot-committed.
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  #6  
Old 03-11-2005, 10:08 PM
Blackjack Blackjack is offline
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Location: Searching for Luck
Posts: 941
Default Re: Incredibly Weak River Fold? Analysis Please!

You have to call that river bet..
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