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#1
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...on Josh Arieh's blog:
"I'm a very quick math kinda person, but the one thing that confused me was percentages vs. odds on my money. I understand it perfectly now and will now get to play more pots!!!!" Since Josh has made it this far without understanding the concept, I feel no shame in asking for clarification myself. So, what's the relationship between the price you're being laid and your winning percentage? |
#2
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Percentages and odds are just different ways of expressing the same thing.
If you have a 10% chance to hit your draw, there is a 90% chance you won't. So, the odds are 9:1 against. In poker, most people use the size of the pot compared to the size of the bet to get pot odds. So, if there is $30 in the pot, and $3 to call, your pot odds are 10:1. If the pot odds are greater than the odds to hit your hand (i.e. 10:1 pot odds on $3 bet vs. 9:1 odds to hit your 10% draw), then you can call. |
#3
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[ QUOTE ]
Percentages and odds are just different ways of expressing the same thing. If you have a 10% chance to hit your draw, there is a 90% chance you won't. So, the odds are 9:1 against. In poker, most people use the size of the pot compared to the size of the bet to get pot odds. So, if there is $30 in the pot, and $3 to call, your pot odds are 10:1. If the pot odds are greater than the odds to hit your hand (i.e. 10:1 pot odds on $3 bet vs. 9:1 odds to hit your 10% draw), then you can call. [/ QUOTE ] Is there a simple way to compute odds into a percentage? I see the 9:1 and 10:1 examples easily, but what about 3:1. It's not just 1 (divided by) 3, (for 33% to win) is it? Basically I'm just looking for the formula here. Sorry, I still feel as if I should know this. Something about it just isn't sticking. And why did Arieh's learning this concept mean he can now play more hands? |
#4
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While it is fine for you to ask, for Josh to say he is a 'very quick' math person and that he didn't understand %'s v odds is just stupid. What does he mean by 'very quick'? That he can count to 100 quickly?
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#5
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Add the numbers together and then divide 100 by that number then multiply this number by the number after the word to.
EG. 3 to 1 . 3 + 1 = 4. 100/4 = 25 . 25 * 1 = 25% EG. 5 to 2 . 5 + 2 = 7 . 100/7 = 14.2 (approx) . 14.2 times 2 = 28.2 . |
#6
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Easy formula, let's say you're 3:1, you've got 25% chance to hit.
X:Y as percentage is Y / (X+Y) 3:1 as percentage is 1 / (3 + 1) which is 1/4 which is 25% For stranger ones, you'll just have to guesstimate, e.g. 7:2 is 2/9 which is ~22% Wow, my first 2+2 posting... you might as well back up the money truck now |
#7
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[ QUOTE ]
While it is fine for you to ask, for Josh to say he is a 'very quick' math person and that he didn't understand %'s v odds is just stupid. What does he mean by 'very quick'? That he can count to 100 quickly? [/ QUOTE ] If he read Josh's blog, it quickly becomes evident that while he is a great poker player, he is not much of an academic. Thanks everyone, I get it now. |
#8
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And if you are comfortable with a little algebra, here's the formulae that tie things together:
The probability of an event happening = p (fractional) The odds (against) = w as in w:1 "doubleyou to one" w = (1-p)/p p = 1/(1+w) If you throw in the number of ways you can lose (not draw the card you want) and the number of ways you can win (draw that nut flush!) then p = (#of wins)/(#of wins + #of losers) w = (#of losers)/(#of wins) Play with the numbers and you'll see, for example, that if p is greater than 1/2, w will be less than 1; this is a positive liklyhood of winning so less than even money (1:1) is good pot odds. (Doesn't happen very often!) |
#9
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Percentages and odds are just different ways of expressing the same thing. If you have a 10% chance to hit your draw, there is a 90% chance you won't. So, the odds are 9:1 against. In poker, most people use the size of the pot compared to the size of the bet to get pot odds. So, if there is $30 in the pot, and $3 to call, your pot odds are 10:1. If the pot odds are greater than the odds to hit your hand (i.e. 10:1 pot odds on $3 bet vs. 9:1 odds to hit your 10% draw), then you can call. [/ QUOTE ] Is there a simple way to compute odds into a percentage? I see the 9:1 and 10:1 examples easily, but what about 3:1. It's not just 1 (divided by) 3, (for 33% to win) is it? Basically I'm just looking for the formula here. Sorry, I still feel as if I should know this. Something about it just isn't sticking. And why did Arieh's learning this concept mean he can now play more hands? [/ QUOTE ] 3 to 1 means 1 in 4, so 25%. |
#10
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"the only problems I ever had as a shortstop were groundballs and pop-ups". [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] |
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