#1
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Figuring out when this will be +EV
A fellow 2+2'er posted this in SS.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds. Flop: (5.33 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls. Turn: (3.66 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls. River: (5.66 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero folds. Final Pot: 8.66 BB My question is: What is the probability that villian has a spade? Taking into account the number of times villian has a spade, at what frequency (relative to the numer of times villian doesn't have a spade) does villian have to be bluff raising to make this call profitable? |
#2
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Re: Figuring out when this will be +EV
There are 9 spades left, 45 cards left. Assuming a random hand for him (false, but ok for the purpose at hand), the chance that he does not have a spade is:
(36/45)*(35/44)=.63 63% I'm good. However, that is just our baseline probability. The important part of the story can't be quantified so readily: 1. Why is he calling down? Flush draw looks likely, especially after the turn. 2. What is the chance, given he does not have a spade, that he has correctly put me on a non-spade hand and thinks that I will fold to a raise. As the board must look scary to him too, this seems quite unlikely. Unlikely enough to justify my fold? There are 7.66BB in the pot. .63*(chance he's bluffing w/out a spade)=(1/8.66) chance he's bluffing = .18 Unless you think the odds of your oppo bluff-raising here are better than 4.5:1, you should fold. gm |
#3
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Re: Figuring out when this will be +EV
[ QUOTE ]
There are 9 spades left, 45 cards left. Assuming a random hand for him (false, but ok for the purpose at hand), the chance that he does not have a spade is: (36/45)*(35/44)=.63 [/ QUOTE ] I understand that (36/45) means there are 9 spades and 45 unknown cards but am lost as to what the second event means. Could you explain that to me? Thanks jokerthief |
#4
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Re: Figuring out when this will be +EV
[ QUOTE ]
I understand that (36/45) means there are 9 spades and 45 unknown cards but am lost as to what the second event means. Could you explain that to me? Thanks jokerthief [/ QUOTE ] We are calculating the chance of his not having a spade. First, there are 36 non-spades out of 45 cards left. After his first card is a non-spade, there are now only 35 non-spades left, and 44 cards left total |
#5
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Re: Figuring out when this will be +EV
I really need to get to bed...duh!
Thanks for the help jokerthief |
#6
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Re: Figuring out when this will be +EV
If you want to 'calculate' if your hand is good you can use this simple formula:
You = no spade Board = 4 spades opponent = raise You = lose |
#7
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Re: Figuring out when this will be +EV
[ QUOTE ]
You = no spade Board = 4 spades opponent = raise You = lose [/ QUOTE ] Versus a tricky TAG, this is silly. A very good player would have put me on a made pocket pair, which means, if he has balls, a bluff raise might be profitable for him (50% chance it works), especially if he knows that I keep betting with top pair no spade. Having said that, I still think it's unlikely and that the fold was good, for reasons I've already stated. But it is not a foregone conclusion, and thinking like this in higher limit games, against tricky, aggressive oppos will get you in trouble. As this was 3/6 and I had no reason to think he was THAT tricky, it's fine. gm |
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