Odds on Fossilman to take WSOP and WCOOP??

[Poker Jon]

Anyone fancy backing Greg to win the main event #12 WCOOP on Stars?

I sure wouldn't want to be at his table!!

I would make him a favourite for the tourney as:

1) He has proved he has got what it takes to work through a large field for a large buy-in for a serious B&M tourney (WSOP) and also on the WPT.

2) He has proved that he work through the same tough field by coming 2nd in a recent (3 months ago??) $500 multi on Stars.

Has anybody else acheived these two feats in the space of a few months?

I'd stick my head on the line and say - NO!

Thoughts??

Cheers

Jon

[Ulysses]

What do you mean by favorite?

If this tourney gets 1,000 entrants, I'd say the chances of Greg winning are 1% at best.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]

If this tourney gets 1,000 entrants, I'd say the chances of Greg winning are 1% at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even thats high IMO. I can't see anyone have that big an edge over what will be a solid field.

[Poker Jon]

How much for Greg on the final table out of 1000?

I would say 3-4%, on current form. I would say he is one of the best 50 players in the tourney!

[Tosh]

Out of a field of 1000 (btw I think it will be a fair bit less than this). I would estimate Greg has about a 2.5% chance of final table. Of course this is just my opinion.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Since the trend seems to be to assume 1000 players, I will use that figure.

Chances of me winning: 1 in 300
Chances of making the final table: 1 in 40

Relatively speaking, why do I give myself a better chance of winning than making the final table? Because, once I make the final table, even if I'm not the chip leader, I have a very good track record of winning.

I might be overinflating my own chances here, but it's just that I've seen so many really terrible players in every online game I've ever played. Much more so than in a live game, even a low limit tournament in a B&M casino.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]

Chances of making the final table: 1 in 40

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Sounds awfully similar to my 2.5% guess. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[HoldingFolding]

I notice you (Fossilman) are 60 to 1 to win the WPC-Dublin on Betfair, with some 30 or so competitors at shorter odds. Which begs the question, will you even be supping a Guinness in Ireland on 23rd June?

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Has anybody else acheived these two feats in the space of a few months?

[/ QUOTE ]
Probably not, although Josh Arieh finished third in the WSOP main event and 8th in a PokerStars weekly $200+15 within less than one week.

[Stoneii]

MBE - what's his stars name?

Thanks

stoneii