Turn action w/TP on a draw-heavy board.

Entity · #1 06-13-2005, 07:30 PM

My limited read suggests that primary villain is tight passive here. Other villain is loose and generally aggressive. I'm really debating whether I should find a fold on the turn.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds, MP raises, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets, Hero folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

Catt · #2 06-13-2005, 07:52 PM

Do you have enough of a read to put him on a reasonable range of holdings? Probably not since you didn't post it. I'm wondering whether he could have limped something like KQ or Q9 or A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9x, whether he might slowplay 44 or 99, and whether his pasivity precludes him from a semi-bluff raise with something like a big [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a gutshot.

If you don't think he could be semi-bluffing with a hand that you beat currently, then I can see folding to the turn C/R -- if he can't or won't semi-bluff, then the only reason to call this is hoping he's betting 2-pair (instead of the scary flush or straight), and being tight it would appear unlikely that his two pair includes a 4. It seems to me that you probably need to call the river if you call the turn, although the 9 might have changed your plan (the more I think about it, the suckier that card is for you) -- if you believed you could draw to a winner (trips or two pair) then you implicitly believe there is sufficient chance that he isn't betting a straight or flush. But if a J falls are you happy with your hand and the board? If the river had been a 4 instead of a 9, would this turn into a river call for you? What outs were you drawing to on the turn? Or were you thinking of calling down TP but the paired 9s changed your plan? As you can see by all the questions, I am confused why you called the turn getting 11 or 12 to 1 (what 4 outs are you drawing to?) but then folded the river when the 9 fell.

Edit: Meh. That was pretty rambling. The more I think about it, the more I see the 9 as a pretty bad card for you. But I got wrapped up in thinking abou the 9 and less so with: how likely is it that this tight-passive raises this turn with a hand that you beat currently? If that's not very likely, it seems to me you're probably drawing to at best 3 outs, possibly 2 outs, and possibly drawing dead. If he can't raise you with a worse hand (but a strong draw), I think I find a fold on the turn.

clownshoes · #3 06-13-2005, 07:54 PM

You cant fold the turn and I dont think I fold the river. Villain will be doing this often enough with a king low kicker or even a queen trying to scare you off when the flush draw hits.

Entity · #4 06-13-2005, 07:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As you can see by all the questions, I am confused why you called the turn getting 11 or 12 to 1 (what 4 outs are you drawing to?) but then folded the river when the 9 fell.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Catt,

I agree with your analysis completely. I think the turn is the critical juncture of the hand, but I do have a gutshot if he's got KQ or 99. I'm only drawing dead against the flush, so it's pretty close one way or another (I think).

Catt · #5 06-13-2005, 07:59 PM

Missed the gutshot. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Catt · #6 06-13-2005, 11:21 PM

Thought about this some more at an evening picnic. Depending on how passive this guy is, I think you're in pretty bad shape on the turn (and best case is you're in OK shape). I don't think you're getting C/Red by a weaker K; I think two pair is possible but unlikely; I think you're up against a set, a straight, or a flush. I think I find a fold pretty often on the turn and if I don't I think I fold on that river (as you did). If he turns over a worse hand at showdown (taking into account his hand strength on the turn), then you revise your read accordingly. Rivering a K may still be a loser; rivering a T may be good for a chop; you may be drawing dead. I agree that the turn is close, but I think if this guy really is tight-passive that you're in bad shape when he C/R's the turn -- pot is big but I'm having a hard time finding real outs to a winning or chopping hand. I never mentioned BB but I'm not really too worried about a LAG that is hitting the call button every time he has the chance.

afk · #7 06-13-2005, 11:39 PM

Catt, you're on fire dude. I pretty much agree with everything you said.

DMBFan23 · #8 06-13-2005, 11:44 PM

I usually take the "call the turn and fold if he bets the river because he'll be semibluffing and give me a free showdown enough to make my turn call +EV" line HU and OOP, I'm not sure if that was your thought here, like if he was semibluffing a 9 plus like the Ah, but the pot is protected by BB on the turn so I can't imagine this is any kind of hand that doesn't want a call. I mean I know we have a lot of outs against two pair but I think we have to discount two pair because of all the strength he's shown.

then again, it could be that you revised your thoughts on the hand in between the turn and river, in which case I am definitely also guilty.