KK in the big blind - facing a big raise

[cruiser]

Playing 1/2 NL online.
Dealt KK in the big blind. 2 callers to guy in mid/late position who makes it 30. Folded to me.

Question 1 -
1. fold
2. call
3. raise

(relevant stack sizes : me about 150, him about 250).

Ok - for the sake of discussion. I called. My thought process was (a) i was hoping to get at least one of the limpers to come along if I got a favorable flop and (b) i would make any move on the flop if I hit something.

I put him on a JJ - AA or maybe as low as AK, AQ.

Flop :
Q - 6 - 2 (2 diamonds).

Question 2:
check or bet - and if you check - how to handle his bet?

my course of action to follow.....

[cruiser]

I thought the flop was somewhat favorable (basically no Ace). I had decided if the flop had no huge draws and no Ace - I would play on agressively (mistake #1?).

I checked the flop - He bet 20 into a pot of about 70. I figured he would bet regardless of the flop. If he had AK, AQ,10-10, or JJ - I was way ahead. If he had QQ or AA i was hurting.

I didn't think I could fold, but wasn't sure about calling or raising. In hindsight I think I misplayed it.

I raised all-in after his bet of 20. I figured calling or raising the min to 40 was basically committing me to the pot - and I was content in taking the pot right then and there if possible.

anyway, i went all-in, he called.

Turn: J
River : x

He turned over AA and I lost a big pot.

In gerneral I'm having trouble figuring out if this is just one of those hands you're destined to go broke on, or if there was a course of action to at least minimize my losses...

[crockpot]

i do not believe calling should even be an option here pre-flop. if any ace flops, you will probably have to fold what might very well be the best hand. if your opponent doesn't have a pair (unlikely, but possible) he is quite unlikely to make a hand good enough to pay you off but not beat you. and if you have him beat, you want to make him pay for the chance to outdraw you. if the flop comes with a jack or queen (maybe even a ten), how will you know whether he has made his set or not? playing this hand correctly on the flop is going to be difficult on a large percentage of the flops.

i believe this is simple math. the blinds and callers are pretty much irrelevant to your stack sizes. push in if you think the chances of him having aces are less than 50%, fold otherwise. players who will make it 30 to go preflop and then fold to a reraise are very rare (although he may fold a hand like AJ, AQ, or AK; and this result is better than letting him have three free cards to catch an ace.)

as to how you're supposed to figure these odds out, this is why you need to get as good a read on your opponents as you can. if this is the first time i've seen him make a big pre-flop raise (or if he's turned over aces or kings every other time i've seen it), i would be quite inclined to fold.

[ML4L]

Hey cruiser,

Crocksucker's post is a perfect explanation of why this is a clear raise/fold preflop.

The only point about which my opinion differs is the action that I would take. Even though there is a chance that he has AA, I would reraise all-in. I see enough players make this type of raise with hands other than AA that, until I have evidence to the contrary, my "default" play is to go all-in.

ML4L

[cruiser]

Yeah...I felt the whole time I wasn't exactly sure how I should be playing it....If I had the best hand, like I said, I hoped to get paid off by the original raiser and maybe even a limper. Re-raising all in pre-flop would surely at best get me heads up with the raiser. Probably folding hands like AK, AQ and maybe even JJ, QQ.

Thanks for the help. I guess this one one of the times I was destined to lose - but I don't think I can put all preflop raisers on AA. I would def say less than 50% would have AA, so a re-raise preflop is prob the best course. Of course there is always the fold option since i'm out of position and could be behind...I'm just not sure that is good EV or not....

thanks again guys.

[1800GAMBLER]

How much does the money mean to you? If you have 10+ buy ins push all in.

If you are going to be annoyed about rebuying and the money means a lot just fold.

[togilvie]

I feel like I'm missing something or there was a typo.

You were playing 1-2 no limit, two limpers, and he made it 30 to-go??!! There was $7 in the pot.

In the games I play in, when someone overbets the pot so dramatically, he's either an idiot or he has bullets. It's that simple. Crocksucker's analysis is a good one if the preflop bet had been closer to a standard raise, but this is massively over-betting the pot.

I would have folded without a second thought and thanked god that my opponent was so obvious as to telegraph his aces.

[limon]

due to the stack sizes I believe the only raise is all in and this raise puts your opponent in a position where he cannot make a mistake. if he has aces he calls you. any other hand he throws away (do players really call a $120 raise here with QQ or AK? definately not with AQ or JJ). i call here and check raise all in a flop with no ace now any overpair is sure to call and get busted these are the same hands that could have gotten away preflop, now they're stuck. If an ace comes i bet out moderate and fold to a raise. if i'm in against AA i get busted no matter what but if im in with a lesser hand i win more playing this way.

[tewall]

It's only true that the opponent is spared from making a mistake (assuming he will fold hands such as QQ and worse) if the poster never bluffs. Assuming the opponent will raise 30 pre-flop with AA-JJ and AK, then bluffing will be close to break even if the opponent will call with AA and KK. If the opponent will also fold KK, or will also raise all-in with some other hands, then bluffing will be very profitable.

If your assumption that the opponent will fold hands worse than KK is correct, then a good strategy would be to re-raise with AA and some other hands as a bluff, and play KK as you have outlined.

If the opponent plays in such a way that bluffing will not be profitable, then re-raising KK will certainly be +EV.

[crockpot]

this is why i said that i would fold here unless i had seen this guy make this kind of bet without aces in the past. though i don't play much no-limit online, when i see a huge overbet like this my first instinct is always to put the guy on aces. against loose players of course, i will actually make a raise this size myself to prevent them from getting correct implied odds to call with small pairs and the like.

there are people on party who will make these kind of bets on AK, QQ, JJ, so you have to know who they are. and the type of player who raises to $30 pre-flop on these hands does not pause to consider "am i beat?" before calling an all-in reraise.

this is why i object to limon's criticism. i agree that a good player, faced with that reraise, folds anything but aces. i do not agree that anyone who will make a raise this out of line with QQ, JJ, or AK is going to fold it. people make big raises because they want to generate big pots, so why would he fold when he achieves his goal?

also, if the raise had been a standard raise, say $10, it is important to note that you should definitely not push all-in preflop, unless the opponent is quite loose. here there is just not enough money in the pot to take any significant chance that he has aces.