Moving up question.

[packbacker83]

Ive only been playing since September this year. I play mostly at the Prima rooms and have done fairly well (IMHO). I just got PT 3 weeks ago and since then have logged about 6000 hands (I know... this is a tiny sample).

For what its worth

VPIP = 19.93
PFR = 5.65
Post Flop Agression = 1.49
Win Rate = 2.28 BB/100
95% Confidence Interval around Win Rate = 1.83 -- 2.73

Ive only recently discovered this forum and learned about SSH (Status: Ordered and on the way from Amazon). Also from reading the posts here, I have learned I am way too passive post flop but I am trusting SSH will help me improve that.

I have way more than the 300BB bankroll recommended for moving up to 1/2 from .5/1 where I have been playing. I'm just not sure if I have the experience required to move up.

Can someone give me some guidelines other than bankroll size to consider before moving up. For instance, certain number of hands at a level ... certain key indicators in PT ... etc.

Just not sure what the next step should be. I dont want to move up and wipe out what ive worked hard for over the last two months.

Also, can someone point me to the link where all these abbreviations (LAG,TAG) are explained?

[ProfLupin]

Welcome to the forums...

My recommendation is that you get at least 20,000 hands in at .5/1 before moving up. There are a few reasons for this.

1. There's no race to move up. Even though you have the bankroll to move up, you'll do better learning the game at a lower limit and solidifying leaks.

2. As you read SSH, you'll be making some seemingly unnatural changes in your post-flop play. This change of play doesn't come easily or quickly to most people, so make your adjustments at a lower level before moving up.

3. The psychological challange of doubling your stakes is vastly underrated and in your post you've expressed fear of losing your last 2 months of hard work. I think it's important to be able to withstand an early losing streak when you move up in limits. They happen quite frequently after a limit switch (again the psychological factors come into play here).

4. After 20,000 hands of .5/1 you will have a very good idea from your poker tracker stats which hands you play well and which hands you need help on. Post plenty of tricky situations in this forum and keep on learning.

5. It's better to move up when you KNOW you're ready, not when you THINK you MIGHT be ready.

Ok, so I've given you my extremely cautious advice. I'll add one more piece of advice. Every so often, go play 100 hands at the higher limit at one table. Write down how it feels different and analyze those hands to death. This way by the time you move up, you won't be in awe of the pot sizes and you'll play better.

Common Abreviations/nicknames:
LAG - Loose/Aggressive player
TAG - Tight/Aggressive
rock - TIGHT passive
maniac - LAG squared
calling station - loose passive

There are more, but you get the point. You want to be a TAG.

[jason1990]

There's no way you have that confidence interval after only 6000 hands. If that's true, then your standard deviation is only 1.7BB/100. Standard deviations are accurate after 6000 hands. And no winning player has a standard deviation that low.

[packbacker83]

Thanks,

You gave me some good reasons to do what my gut was telling me to do anyway. Just dont feel comfortable making the switch after a couple of months playing starting from zero knowledge. I kinda had in my mind to make the switch if im still running at this rate after 10K or 15K hands but 25 is good also.

I think Ill take your advice on a short foray into the next level also. Ive got a Stars deposit bonus to work off.

Thanks again.

[droolie]

When you go from being the guy getting advice on these forums to the guy giving advice on these forums you'll be ready.

[packbacker83]

Maybe you can help me with my math

CI=WR +/- 2(STDERR)

STDERR = SD/sqrt(N)

WR= 2.28 BB/100
SD = 17.238 BB
N = 5876

sqrt(N) =76.66
SE=17.238/76.66 = .22

2.28 +/- (2)(.22) = 1.84 -- 2.72

I think Ive done it right but one of us is definitely off an order of magnitude. Can you help?

[jason1990]

Sure. Your formulas are right, but the units are wrong. SD is measured in BB/100, so in your formula for STDERR, you must measure N in hundreds of hands. This means you should use N = 58.76, not 5876. This is where the factor of 10 is coming from.

[helpmeout]

Its fine to move up early but if 50c/$1 is the first limit you started at then its best to stay for a while.

A solid foundation is definately needed, once you have that foundation then you can move up with the 300BB bankroll. When you dont have it you will need to constantly change your game so moving up is not recommended.

Get your PFR up to around 8 at least.

Buy half a dozen books, WLLHE, ITH, TOP, SSHE, MLHE and HEPFAP.

[packbacker83]

DOH!!!

Been a long time since engineering classes. you're right.

CI is -2.23 to 6.79

God!!! I May actually suck at this game.

Think Ill stay at this level and work on multitabling until I at least get the CI out of the negative range.

Thanks

[packbacker83]

Okay,

You have me 50% confused.

ITH? MLHE? HEPFAP?