Where do I begin?

Hi Sportsbettors


I am a professional poker player who has been playing for over two years. I manage to squeek by, not making much money but paying the bills and my somewhat large expenses (I owe over 50 grand in loans and this eats up quite a bit every month). Anyway I was looking to expand my approach. Since I am a professional gambler I thought I should look into sports and, perhaps, blackjack and not focus solely on poker if there are other ways to make money too.


What are my chances to be successful and how should I go about doing it? I know virtually nothing about sports and never played any serious sports. Does this matter that I am not an athlete and don't understand, for example, basketball concepts like zone defense, triangle offense, etc.? Do I have to learn these basics to have any chance for success? What are the "bibles" of sportsbetting, the equivalent of the Sklansky-Malmuth Hold-em for Advanced Players, Book of Tells, and Theory of Poker trio? I am not averse to working hard as I have in poker and would appreciate any specific instructions or advice. I do enjoy watching the NBA and would like to focus on learning how to handicap the NBA. Is that realistic? Any comments appreciated.


Joeflex

Honestly, I would say forget it. It will be awhile until you will win consistently because the learning curve for sports is longer than that of poker. In poker its quite easy to learn the game from others, so to speak. You can do what many of the best do in play a tight conservative game while trying to learn what the successful players do to win and what the losers due to relegate themselves to their loser status. Thats not really possible in sports betting, the very best have no intention of showing you what to do or what traps to avoid. It really is something you have to put time into and just learn on the fly. Good advice tends to get forgotten or ignored, most things a player has to learn through making mistakes. If you are undaunted and still want the challenge, do 3 things:


1. Have a legitimate, don't need to use it for anything else, bankroll. Poker players are terrible with this one, they treat their wins from the game on Friday night as Saturday's bankroll, or as they often think of it, freeroll. This is a huge mistake, bankroll has to be well-thought out, properly sized, and most of all, consistently applied. If you are not setting aside a bankroll then the rule of consistency will almost certainly not be used.


2. Focus on a few things first. Don't try to be a 3 or 4 sport bettor in year one. Having another income is important because this will have to be something like a part-time job with potentially full-time hours while you learn and build your bankroll. I usually tell people to start with betting things they think of least first, such as MLB or NHL. You see everyone thinks they "know" NFL or NBA. Problem is they don't know it from the betting perspective. Going after things you know least gives you a chance to approach things with a clean slate and learn the game the best way possible, from the ground up. I further emphasize MLB and NHL because I think the best way to teach someone how to win at sports when they are starting out is to learn how to play and value odds betting first, not line betting. Once again its something where odds betting isn't really intuitive but betting against a pointspread is (ie, I think the Bears are at least 6 points better than the Vikings so I will bet them at -3). Understanding value is much easier when you learn odds betting first.


3. Since you are starting out I can say with at least 80% likelihood you will bust out once, much higher if you try to get away with anything less than 50 bets for a bankroll. It happens time and time again to even intelligent gamblers starting out seriously in sports. I was busted many many years ago and think it probably was the best lesson I ever learned and I never have been close to busting out again. So be prepared for that. Its the reason why almost every good handicapper and book will say only have a bankroll you can afford to lose.


All in all I think you will be disappointed. The returns are crappy years 1 and 2. I can't lie about it, it took me 7 years of heavily thinking about it, making bets, doing all the legwork and guess what made the light go on for me? I helped run a bookie operation! Not that I would tell anyone to go out and do it, but you learn so much doing that. Maybe even learn the lessons poker players can learn that the average sports bettors can't. In any case it is really trial and error for a long time for almost everyone betting sports and few make it into even the break even level. Since you are looking for positive returns you probably will earn more money in a second job making minimum wage than you will betting sports for awhile.