6-max win rate

[Mike Mussina]

A great player in full ring games can make 3BB/100.

What would be the estimated winrate for a great player in the 6-max game?

[blubster]

usually around 53BB/100

you have to be very good though

blubster

[Schneids]

We seem to have some disagreements about this topic here.

Get to the mid-higher limits and a "great" player can net 3BB/100. A lot of "very good" can do 2-3.

I personally believe at the low limit short handed tables 4BB/100 is doable by a great player.


BTW are you THE mike mussina? If so can I have your autograph you were one of my favorite pitchers in the early 90's.

[Mike Mussina]

[ QUOTE ]
usually around 53BB/100

you have to be very good though

blubster

[/ QUOTE ]


Did you mean 5BB/100?

A good player will be involved in more hands and can be more aggressive. But I'm not sure how much higher his winrate will be.

Can Stripsqueeze or Nate give me an estimate so I can see how I measure up?

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
Stripsqueeze or Nate give me an estimate so I can see how I measure up?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think blubster meant 53

schneids was running better than me until he decided to place a bunch of expectations in front of himself and crashed to something pathetic like 2BB's/100 whilst 17 tabling

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
whilst 17 tabling


[/ QUOTE ]

Is it possible or just some kind of joke?

[Guido]

17 tabling is nothing, 31 now that's something...

[Mike Mussina]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW are you THE mike mussina? If so can I have your autograph you were one of my favorite pitchers in the early 90's.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm a Mike Mussina fan too. He pitched some big games against the Indians in the playoffs.

[spydog]

Good luck getting a straight answer on this one. I am running at 4.5BB/100 over 12k hands on 1/2. I only 2-table it, but I feel this win rate can be sustained at the lower limits. Most experienced people on this forum will tell you that this win rate at 12k hands only indicates that I am a winning player, but that my true win rate can only be determined over a minimum of 50k hands.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

Most experienced people on this forum will tell you that this win rate at 12k hands only indicates that I am a winning player, but that my true win rate can only be determined over a minimum of 50k hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

Engage statistics mode

To know how accurate your win rate is, you need to compute the standard deviation of your win rate, otherwise known as standard error.

If you're using pokertracker: Session Stats --> More Details will tell you your standard deviation per 100 hands. Divide this figure by the square root of the number of 100s of hands you've played: in this case you've played 120 hundreds of hands (i.e. 12k hands), so you're dividing by about 11. The result is your standard error.

Your "true" win rate lies within four standard errors of your measured win rate. With 99% confidence, it lies within three standard errors. And with (something like) 95% confidence, it lies within two standard errors.

Let's say you have a standard deviation of 16BB per hundred hands, which is a figure I've heard quoted for 6-max games. (My own for full games is 14BB, a bit less than the 6-max figure, as you'd expect.) Let's say you want to be very sure of your win rate, 99% confident, to within 0.5 BB. That is, you want three standard errors to amount to 0.5BB, so one standard error should be 0.16BB.

You therefore need

standard error = 0.16BB = standard dev / sqrt(number of 100 hand samples)

If standard deviation is 16BB, you need to play a million hands to get this sure.

Disengage stats mode

The trouble with this is that you are not measuring your play in a vacuum. Your opponents will change. You will change. If you are still playing the same strategy after a million hands, I would be very surprised. Your figures are therefore meaningless, and you'll never know your true win rate.

Until you die.

Having said all that, being aware of your standard error will help you come to terms with rises and drops in your overall win rate, and help you conclude that you're a winning player, as you suggest.

(If you have a std dev of 16BB/100 after 12k hands, your standard error is about 1.5BB, so if you're winning 4.5BB/100 hands, that's 3 standard errors and it is extremely likely that you are at worst a breakeven player. Nice to know!)

Guy.