AKs in first hand of a paradise 10+1, easy laydown?

Jon34 · #1 02-29-2004, 11:04 PM

5/10 blinds, 1000 chip stacks. I get A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in MP. I raise to 45, get Button and SB call.
Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, I bet 100, button folds, SB check raises allin.
it feels like a steal raise, and I probably have 15 outs, I could even be ahead of QJ of spades or similar (straight draw?), but I cant risk my stack on the first hand like that, right? He also could just have an overpair, a pair and draw, or the made straight, cutting my outs to 9. Easy laydown, correct?

I ended up busting out on JTs by the time I finished writing this by going allin after getting raised on the turn on a 9AK-Q board (flop was checked around). He had K9 for the slowplayed bottom 2 and rivers a king. oh well.
Sorry for the bad beat story, but was that first hand a correct laydown?

La Brujita · #2 03-01-2004, 12:59 AM

FWIW I would have called. Nut flush draw and overcards puts you in strong position against most hands. You already have 100 invested in this round of betting furthering the pot odds you re getting.

Jon34 · #3 03-01-2004, 01:29 AM

really? I have 855 left in chips, and the pot is less than 1200. while there are a few drawing hands he could semibluff checkraise me with, it seems that some of his likely holdings are a coinflip, but a good number (any 2 pair, a set, the made straight) knock me down to 9 outs. Also, even if I double up, there are still 8 others left, and I dont have a guarantee for making in the money. If I lose a coinflip, I get nothing. You dont wait for a better spot?

Bluff1 · #4 03-01-2004, 02:24 AM

I would probably lay it down here Jon. A check raise is usually bad news and he way over bet the pot. When someone over bets the pot by that much, they usually have crap or the goods. Seeing how its early I would just fold and wait for a better spot.

But I got to ask why the bet of a 100? I think you would have been better off checking than betting for what its worth. I hate to get shut out of pots the way you did on this one.

Jon34 · #5 03-01-2004, 02:48 AM

thats a good question. At the time, it seemed like I could most likely take the pot down right there if I bet, and if LP raised me, I still have either 15 or 9 outs depending on his hand. I would have called a standard sized raise, but the allin wasnt worth it. Isn't betting out with a 4 flush and 2 overs a standard play on a board like that?

Bluff1 · #6 03-01-2004, 06:34 AM

I might bet it if I was first to act and even then it's a maybe. The pot is small here and you have a huge draw. If you bet and are reraised a ton, as you were, then you are put to a tough decision. If you check you will mostly see the turn for free. If someone does bet it’s unlikely that he will bet enough to shut you out of the pot.

La Brujita · #7 03-01-2004, 09:26 AM

I agree a cr all in is usually a signal that a huge hand has been made. That being said, with the crazies that play small tournaments (at least from my experience at PP) I think you may well have the 42% chance that the pot is laying you. It is a tough decision and laying it down might not be a bad play.

I have long been a proponent of survival in tourneys, but once you are in a big pot early in the tourney, I try not to avoid positive ev situations (due to the fungiblity of tournaments).

You are a fave against and overpairs well as against a pair and an oe straight draw.

That being said you are not getting correct odds against a flopped set, made straight or even two pair and frankly laying it down might not be a bad play.

I think your bet of 100 on the flop is not a bad play at all. you are the pre flop raiser and hit the flop pretty hard. This bet seems a pretty standard play to make; you may win the pot with the bet right there.

Regards

PrayingMantis · #8 03-01-2004, 09:32 AM

For me it's a close one between checking and betting on the flop, probably betting, but I *definitely* fold after the check-raise all-in. I think most chances are that he's not bluffing with a lower flush draw in his position. He could easily be on a 2-pair, set, or a flopped straight, and he's afraid of a flush draw. I've seen this moves a lot on 11$ buy-ins. So basically, you are at best a coin-flip (against 65, say), and usually a big dog.

It's too early in my opinion to take your chances here. If it was LP who pushed, I think calling is a bit better, but I still fold. Doesn't worth it.

PrayingMantis

PrayingMantis · #9 03-01-2004, 09:39 AM

La Brujita,

[ QUOTE ]
You are a fave against and overpairs well as against a pair and an oe straight draw

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree you are a fave against oe straight draw, you are not better than a coin-flip against any pair, which makes it a clear fold, IMO, regardless of the existing small pot before the push (that hero built himself).

PrayingMantis

Moonsugar · #10 03-01-2004, 10:07 AM

I have a different philosophy than most others here, I guess. I am willing to accept the chance that my only win is the flush and call the all in. The reason is that it is so early in the tourney. If I win I am in a very good position to make money and if I lose I start another tourney. This play may not make thew most sense from this single tourney perspective, but I believe it will give me more money/hour. Which is all I care about.

Against any pair but AA and KK you are a slight favorite (and getting better than 1:1). You are 3:1 dog, if the man has a set. The worst possibility is a 4:1 dog v. 6s 3s.

Everyone has to play their game, but I risk the chance I am a big dog to get the chips in this situation. If you are a much better big stack player than average then it is probably the right play. If you are a great mid, small stack player and not so good with the big stack then it is better to fold.

Later in the tourney, with a big or mid stack, it is an easy fold (except maybe to short stack).