Turned Set, Raised on the River

JohnShaft · #1 08-02-2003, 05:44 PM

5/10 online (UB) mostly tightish fairly solid table.

Folded to me in the Cutoff, I open raise with T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Button 3-bets, Big blind and I call.

Flop 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB checks, I bet, Button and BB call.

Turn T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] giving me top set and the nuts.
BB checks, I bet, Button raises, BB folds, I 3-bet, Button caps.

River 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, button raises.

My move?

Tosh · #2 08-02-2003, 05:55 PM

I fancy he has a set too that he's slow played. I reckon 99, so I'd reraise. I think you can rule out any straights as noone is going to 3 bet pre flop with anything that could make a straight on that board. If he has something like AK spades you'll lose money but I'd be surprised if he did.

JohnShaft · #3 08-04-2003, 05:51 PM

Yeah, that's exactly what I thought Tosh.

I reraised without even thinking about it as the spade didn't really scare me at all.
I fancied him for a over played AA (on the turn) or a properly played 99 after the raise.

He capped and turned over AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for the runner runner nut flush.
His capping of the turn headsup after I 3-bet him had thrown me off, but I still think it was a real bad play.
That's twice I've ran into people "overplaying" flush draws lately, both times they've hit and I've been buried.

I guess I have to figure the aggression is starting to pick up at 5/10 level online, but putting that much money in as that big a dog doesn't seem smart to me.

SittingBull · #4 08-04-2003, 06:19 PM

way of knowing that u are not playing hands like JJ,QQ,99,etc. where U preflop raised or that u were on a "steal". Even if U did have one of the above hands,with his AKs and flush draw,he had many outs to beat any of the above hands. Since your hand was concealed,he had no way of knowing if u had a set--you could also have been playing AT,KT,etc. In a reduced short-handed game,all these hands are raisable hands .
Hence,he believed that he was playing a good % hand.
HappyPokering, [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
SittingBull

Louie Landale · #5 08-04-2003, 06:47 PM

(I read the results).

His nut-flush 4-bet on the turn doesn't have to work very often at all (get you to fold) for it to be profitable. Are you going to fold KK? KT? JJ? For many, the anser is "Well, I just 3-bet him and he -bet. I MUST be beat".

- Louie

JohnShaft · #6 08-04-2003, 07:38 PM

I dunno Louie. Maybe people are trying things on me at 5/10 that I'm just not used to seeing at my old limits (.20/.50->3/6) ?

But I sure as hell ain't 3-betting you and folding to a 4-bet. And I'm also VERY unlikely to check fold the river if you 4-bet either...
Are these folds people are now *expecting* me to be able to make so trying moves on me?
(If so I still got the best of the money going in surely)

Louie Landale · #7 08-05-2003, 01:34 PM

As for the "quality" of his turn 4-bet:

[1] He may just be hyper aggressive.

[2] As I suggested he may figure you for a light turn 3-bet and MAY fold to a 4-bet. Now the fact that YOU will never fold for any single bets once you 3-bet the turn (i.e. you have a hand that can beat AA) doesn't mean he knows that. Lets not confuse what he "should" be thinking with what is "is" thinking. Also, dare I suggest to say, lets not confuse what YOU are thinking with what HE should be thinking.

But back to the river: I would have put him on a big draw such as QsJs when he raised the river, and would just call.

- Louie

JohnShaft · #8 08-05-2003, 10:33 PM

Now the fact that YOU will never fold for any single bets once you 3-bet the turn (i.e. you have a hand that can beat AA) doesn't mean he knows that. Lets not confuse what he "should" be thinking with what is "is" thinking. Also, dare I suggest to say, lets not confuse what YOU are thinking with what HE should be thinking.

Couldn't agree more Louie. I should write that down and pin it on my monitor. Seriously.
I've long had a tendency to assume my rationale to opponents by default (imagine how that served me at the .25/.50 tables! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])
I'm slowly starting to cast it off I think.

But. On the nature of betting and 3-betting the turn headsup and folding to the river bet it's not so much that I don't do it, but more the fact I don't recall having seen anyone ever doing it (my experience is solely online <=5/10). Maybe a total thief-maniac who finally gives up on his re-steal, which I most certainly am not.

I was thinking these where the type of plays (3-bet fold to cap) I should now start to consider. I must admit I don't get the logic in them overmuch yet (at the limits I've played)

If people are going to routinely play this way against me I don't think I'm going to learn either.
I simply run into too many maniacs "trying to knock me off hands".

BTW his QJs seems a "bigger hand" but it's a mixed blessing. If I have KK/AA he's only got the same outs as AKs has if I have QQ/JJ. [Admittedly unknown to him it would fair much better against my set]
And I wouldn't have put him on a preflop reraise with QJs anyway.
My read of him was he wasn't an overaggressive player, and he probably knew enough to know I'm *reasonably* tight-solid (well that's what I like to think [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]).

AceHigh · #9 08-05-2003, 10:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If people are going to routinely play this way against me I don't think I'm going to learn either.
I simply run into too many maniacs "trying to knock me off hands".

[/ QUOTE ]

Be careful classifying this play as the play of a maniac. The turn play could mean you are up against a very good player. Likely he is a decent player, trying to be a good player and misusing this play.

[ QUOTE ]
he probably knew enough to know I'm *reasonably* tight-solid (well that's what I like to think ).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I've played against you on Party Poker. If he's a good player, it shouldn't take him long to figure out you are a solid player.

Mike Gallo · #10 08-04-2003, 07:17 PM

Shaft,

I want you to sit in your opponents chair for the hand.

I think the button played it well. I think I would have played it the exact same way.

Let me echo my thoughts if I had the button for this hand.

The cutoff raises and you dont pop me back. I will put you on a wide range of hands. Since, you didnt pop me back so I don't think you have Aces or Kings. You most likely have a pocket pair.

Flop 9 5 3 BB checks, I bet, Button and BB call. I have two over cards a nut backdoor flush draw. He bet into my preflop raise. I put you on a pocket pair not overcards. I think you would have checkraised with a big pair. Why else would you bet into my preflop raise. You needed to protect a vunerale hand. Perhaps you bet into me because you wanted me to raise. I have to call the pot is getting big and I have outs.

Turn T giving me top set and the nuts.

I now put you on Jacks and I have more outs. You cant push me off this hand. I might as well cap my nut flush draw. You need a Jack.

River River 7 I hit my hand..bet...bet...bet bet.

Just my opinion. Flame Away

Michael