playing a weak hand in a big pot

[patrick dicaprio]

10-20 at the borgata. i have 4A/4 full table. i bring in, there is a raise and a reraise by an Q and a T, respectively. these are the next players in the pot to act after me. all of the remaining players but one call and i fold.

the next card out is a four. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] the pot gets played and the player who wins the pot was the Q wha had only a pair of queens.

i actually thought about calling on third but folded. did i make the right play?

Pat

[Thinkards]

Pat,

Your hand poses some difficult problems.

Against a large number of chasers, a starting pair with a hidden Ace kicker can be a wonderful thing if you manage to pair the Ace early. On the other hand, holding such a low pair, and then having to call a double bet on third street against six wild opponents.... is not a pretty thought.

For the same reasons you would have folded my split 3's with the Queen, I probably would have played your hand exactly as you did.

[7stud]

Cards: 2c As/2h
"It is generally worth it to go all the way against a probable pair lower than aces in a heads up situation, providing that your opponent does not improve and your cards remain live."(Seven Card Stud for Advanced Players, 21st century edition, p.44)

In your situation, you were not heads up, and if you had re-raised you probably couldn't have gotten it heads up. Pairs go down in value in multiway pots, so your hand was weak.

Also, you might not have any implied odds if you catch a 4, since when you hit your door card, everyone might fold especially after you called two raises.

On the other hand, you look like you might be getting up to 6:1 on your call in addition to the antes, so the price might have been right.

[7stud]

....I ran this over at two dimes:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=54463
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s
4c ah 4d - 2h qh qd - kd ks th - 9h 6h 3h - 9c 5c 6c - 8d 9s ts - jc jh 9d
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4c 4d Ah 83025 16.61 416958 83.39 17 0.00 0.166
Qd Qh 2h 83111 16.62 416878 83.38 11 0.00 0.166
Ks Kd Th 84402 16.88 415590 83.12 8 0.00 0.169
9h 6h 3h 38213 7.64 461290 92.26 497 0.10 0.077
9c 6c 5c 101931 20.39 397567 79.51 502 0.10 0.204
Ts 9s 8d 59853 11.97 439575 87.92 572 0.11 0.120
Jc 9d Jh 48537 9.71 451212 90.24 251 0.05 0.097

and you might have been around a 5:1 underdog to win the pot, so the pot odds may have made a call favorable.

[7stud]

...but having reviewed the difference between effective odds and pot odds in "The Theory of Poker", it is important to realize that you were going to have to put more money into the pot on later betting rounds, and so another question you had to consider was: would you still be able to get better than 5:1 on your future bets(i.e no one would fold)? Since that seems uncertain, you probably didn't have the right price to call.

[rtrombone]

[Andy B]

[ QUOTE ]
In your situation, you were not heads up, and if you had re-raised you probably couldn't have gotten it heads up. Pairs go down in value in multiway pots, so your hand was weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Probably"? Who calls two bets and then folds for one, or even two, more? I sure don't.

If all of these people are calling $20 cold, someone is bad enough to be calling when Pat hits his door card.

Calling might well have a neutral expectation on third street. There are two things that your simulation doesn't account for, though:

1) The hands that Pat is up against are probably not as good as the ones you used. It is pretty damned rare for there to be seven playable hands on one deal, not that I'd necessarily play all of those hands for two bets, especially in a $10/20 game. I would guess that Pat was in a game with a lot of bad players, and their hands were considerably weaker. The fact that a lousy pair of Queens won the pot would seem to support this contention.

2) It will probably cost Pat several bets to make a hand, and it probably won't be worth it. Of the 16+% of hands that win in the simulation, a significant percentage of them are made when Pat hits a Four or an Ace on sixth street or the river. A lot of times, he'll have to fold on fifth street, and occasionally on fourth. His hand is a playing loser. If it were one bet, he'd have a call, but for two, I think he has to let it go.

[Andy B]

If the next card off were a Nine, would you still be asking about this? If you stay in, you make trips, but the six seat makes his straight on the river. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[34TheTruth34]

With all those players in and a big pot, I'd be tempted to take a card or two off as long as the aces and fours remained live and the Q or T didn't pair their board. Sounds like a pretty good game...

[patrick dicaprio]

you are right and i think i made the right play,but i did have good odds and if i caught perfect on fourth i coudl win a big pot.

Pat