Knowing that you're beat (and losing your chips anyway)

This is a hand I just had a couple hours ago in a $55.

Fairly early in the tourney (25/50 blinds)---
Late position limper-- 1300 chips
SB-- 600 chips
BB (Hero)-- 1000 chips

Dealt to Hero-- 55
Flop--- 4 4 5

150 in pot
SB checks, Hero checks, LP dude bets 150
SB calls, Hero calls

Turn--- 4

I KNOW that the SB has a 4... I KNOW that I'm beat, even though there are so many other possible hands for him to have.

But I'm going to lose my chips anyway.

This is of course an extreme example--- more often it's people catching unlikely flushes, straights, etc....

But I guess my question is--- should I ever trust my instincts enough to let this hand go?

Hell no. One card in the deck that can beat you, dont give him credit so freely.

[ace_in_the_hole]

Thus is the beauty of poker and the real reason why it is soooo hard to play perfectly. I don;t think I could ever let that hand go unless I saw my opponents cards. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I had a similar hand...had pocket 7s. flop came 778, so i was pretty happy and when i got a caller to a 25% pot sized raise, i was ecstatic. the 8 on the turn didnt bother me until i found out after pushing he had pocket 8s

[Rduke55]

There is no way you know you're beat here. Never let this go.
Other situations, I can see your point.

[durron597]

When do you know the SB has a 4? On the flop? Or after the 3rd 4 hits? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

If you know the SB has a 4 on the flop, push the flop! He will call.

This is kind of a response to a couple of the similar responses--

On the flop--- when the SB calls, I put him on a 4. Now-- after the turn comes, do I change my mind? Should I backpeddle and rationalize some other hand?

It's taken a long time for me to develop and trust my intuition--- I used to change my estimation of my opponent's hand on every street-- and I've had much more success since...

Of course I can't know absolutely. And that's the way I rationalize changing my opinion on the turn... And mathematically-- I have to be right an overwhelming percentage of the time in order for it to be correct to let this hand go...

But still-- It seems that changing my first assessment is not good.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

On the flop--- when the SB calls, I put him on a 4. Now-- after the turn comes, do I change my mind? Should I backpeddle and rationalize some other hand?


[/ QUOTE ]

Please read my post [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] if this is your read, PUSH FLOP, you get a betting action again when it gets back to you.

[SonnyJay]

No matter how sure you think you are you can not let this go. You aren't getting enough of a "tell" playing an online SNG after about 20 hands (while possibly multitabling) to come close to folding it. I just don't see any possible way.

-SonnyJay

[Rduke55]

[ QUOTE ]
This is kind of a response to a couple of the similar responses--

On the flop--- when the SB calls, I put him on a 4. Now-- after the turn comes, do I change my mind? Should I backpeddle and rationalize some other hand?

It's taken a long time for me to develop and trust my intuition--- I used to change my estimation of my opponent's hand on every street-- and I've had much more success since...

Of course I can't know absolutely. And that's the way I rationalize changing my opinion on the turn... And mathematically-- I have to be right an overwhelming percentage of the time in order for it to be correct to let this hand go...

But still-- It seems that changing my first assessment is not good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure this is relevant but wouldn't the next four hitting make it less likely that he has a 4? So you can reevaluate.
Kind of like a lesser example of "I think he's on the nut flush draw" and then the As hits.
Again, I see your point but at these extremes it doesn't apply I think.