Bluff EV

WalkAmongUs · #1 10-19-2005, 10:42 PM

I haven't seen too much discussion of bluffs lately. Do you think this was a +EV spot to bluff? I'm always on the lookout for opportunites for pilfering to present themselves. I realize this isn't a pure bluff, but I suspect theres a chance I got a better hand to fold. He also might have raised a flush draw and followed through on the river...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Button folds.

Turn: (2.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP3 raises, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

lautzutao · #2 10-19-2005, 10:43 PM

Obviously it was if you show everyone folding[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

milesdyson · #3 10-19-2005, 10:49 PM

this looks to me like one of the worst possible spots to bluff check raise. the card completed NO DRAWS WHATSOEVER, and it's the SAME CARD as this guy probably hit on the turn.

Shillx · #4 10-19-2005, 10:57 PM

Bet the flop already.

LoaferGee12 · #5 10-20-2005, 12:12 AM

You should be betting that flop. Given the way you played it, I'm folding to a turn raise as I really don't see a 6 raising here. Given the way you played it after that, I'm check-folding the river and no I don't think the bluff is +EV. You will rarely get a fold, even from TAGs.

WalkAmongUs · #6 10-20-2005, 07:38 AM

I agree I should have bet the flop, especially since it was only a three-way pot.

However, MP3 wasn't a passive player. If he had a K I would have seen a bet on the flop. I beleive I would have also seen a flop bet from a set or anything else since he was in last position.

When he raises the turn the MOST I can put him on is a 6 but what hands is he playing with a 6 in it? I didn't figure too many. I call because at the very least I can beat a pair of 6s

Now when the second six hits, it makes it even more likely he doesn't have it. I raise planning to fold to a reraise.

Comments?

silencio · #7 10-20-2005, 07:50 AM

Betting the flop might be a good bluff/semi bluff. I remember reading on HFAP (I hope I got the initials right) that in this kind of drawless flop when the high card is a K, it is much more likely that no one has that K because if they had they would have probably raised there hand preflop.

This of course depends a little bit in your opponents but in a 3 player flop with you holding middle pair you should bet that flop.

#8 10-20-2005, 08:08 AM

Bet the flop.

As milesdyson mentioned, this is a bad place to try a CR-bluff, especially if you aren't certain where you're at, and aren't willing to fold to a three-bet. A king isn't folding here, a six isn't folding either, a better seven (Q7 and A7) *might* fold sometimes, and a four isn't paying off your raise in any case (obviously wasn't for value if you want him to fold). I doubt you pull this sort of play off against a better hand often enough for it to be EV+, and you probably had the best hand here.

deception5 · #9 10-20-2005, 09:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree I should have bet the flop, especially since it was only a three-way pot.

However, MP3 wasn't a passive player. If he had a K I would have seen a bet on the flop. I beleive I would have also seen a flop bet from a set or anything else since he was in last position.

When he raises the turn the MOST I can put him on is a 6 but what hands is he playing with a 6 in it? I didn't figure too many. I call because at the very least I can beat a pair of 6s

Now when the second six hits, it makes it even more likely he doesn't have it. I raise planning to fold to a reraise.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is your thought process then check/calling the river is superior to check/raising.

WalkAmongUs · #10 10-20-2005, 10:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If this is your thought process then check/calling the river is superior to check/raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is correct except in the circumstance where the opponent checked a weak king (he would have to be passive) and was capable of laying down that king to a check raise on the end. This particular situation is barely ever going to occur and even if it did, I'd have to read it correctly.

So check/calling > check/raising.