First hand of an $11: AK in the BB

[vabogee]

***** Hand History for Game 2549317285 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:14913317 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Wednesday, August 17, 02:43:38 EDT 2005
Table Table 35300 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 10: jackgibbs ( $800 )
Seat 4: Bologna_1101 ( $800 )
Seat 3: BlumpkinFan ( $800 )
Seat 9: Von_Sohn ( $800 )
Seat 1: iriedogg ( $800 )
Seat 2: stu_pit ( $800 )
Seat 5: sushi1o1 ( $800 )
Seat 6: samettysam ( $800 )
Seat 8: TeddyKGB43 ( $800 )
Seat 7: bondra5839 ( $800 )
Trny:14913317 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BlumpkinFan [ Ac Kh ]
Bologna_1101 folds.
sushi1o1 raises [95].
samettysam folds.
bondra5839 folds.
TeddyKGB43 calls [95].
Von_Sohn folds.
jackgibbs calls [95].
iriedogg folds.
stu_pit raises [590].


???

[Paulson]

That's a very easy fold. Looks the reraiser has a big pair with bettors yet to act.

[vabogee]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a very easy fold. Looks the reraiser has a big pair with bettors yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a $10 tourney, do I really put the raiser on exactly AA or KK? or is it worth calling with a ton of dead money in the pot, hoping to see QQ, JJ or TT? if it's a flip, another tourney is seconds away (this is the first hand).

I folded and so did everyone else, so this is pure conjecture, but i'm wondering if a fold was at all a mistake.

[lwspoker69]

At this point of the tourney, you should not be taking coinflips. Fold.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's a very easy fold. Looks the reraiser has a big pair with bettors yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a $10 tourney, do I really put the raiser on exactly AA or KK? or is it worth calling with a ton of dead money in the pot, hoping to see QQ, JJ or TT? if it's a flip, another tourney is seconds away (this is the first hand).

I folded and so did everyone else, so this is pure conjecture, but i'm wondering if a fold was at all a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your odds aren't even that great; they're like 11/8, and this is so early in a tourny where people are obviously very willing to give you even better spots.

[Paulson]

Let's assume its an all in bet.

Range: JJ+,AQs+,AQo+
Here it is almost exactly 50%:50%

Range: TT+,AJs+,AJo+
Here you are a 54%:45% favorite, but thats a pretty loose reraising range

[Paulson]

Couple that with 2 guys sandwhiched between you 2.

[vabogee]

[ QUOTE ]

Range: TT+,AJs+,AJo+
Here you are a 54%:45% favorite, but thats a pretty loose reraising range

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, it is a loose range, but would it really surprise you at an $11 sng? There's even the chance that he's making a squeeze play with an even looser range.

[Paulson]

Like you said, its the 11$ tables. If a player is advanced enough to know about a squeeze play he should also be advanced enough to know they don't work at that buy in. Especially that early in a tourney.

[vabogee]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume its an all in bet.

Range: JJ+,AQs+,AQo+
Here it is almost exactly 50%:50%



[/ QUOTE ]

If we can conservatively agree on this, then i'm getting 1.35:1 on an even money call. How can this be bad when I'd either leave the tourney, or continue with a big chip advantage (T1885)?

forgive me if i'm missing something, i'm very new to playing sngs seriously.