Standing up to the bubble bully

[durron597]

Villian in this hand was playing pretty tight early but really loosened up on the Bubble. You think there's a pretty good chance he is pushing with any two. What is the worst hand you call with here? I suppose this is just a math question, isn't it.

Hm, I decided to do the math before submitting the thread. ICM says that Hero should call with AA-TT, and that's it (assuming the Bubble LAG is pushing with any two). What do you call with?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600, ante is t50 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t1391)
Button <font color="#A500AF">(Bubble LAG)</font> (t6973)
SB (t975)
Hero (t4161)

Preflop: Hero is BB with X, X.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button <font color="#A500AF">(Bubble LAG)</font> raises to t6973</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t7123

[schwza]

it might not be the right play, but i don't think i could fold AK/99 there.

what % do you need to win according to icm?

[durron597]

.7324 is the breakeven point.

[bluefeet]

against big stack, i would stick pretty close to your AA-TT analysis. i just don't see a reason to tangle w/ him - as long as he's doing his share of UTG aggression, putting preasure on the shorties as well.

[wildzer0]

With two people so close to going out, I probably fold anything but kings or aces here and steal when/if the big stacks not in the hand.

[reecelights]

I might call with that suggestion if he were UTG. On the button I add 99 and AJs. From the small blind 77 and A8s. Although he is the big stack, and that usually makse me back off a bit. I definitely call with those ranges once ITM.

But my Power Tools are at home and not at work, and I may be wrong in my instincts here. Although aren't the instincts important since you can't use the Tool during a game?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I might call with that suggestion if he were UTG. On the button I add 99 and AJs. From the small blind 77 and A8s.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you think there's a good chance he's pushing any two, why does his position matter?

[gumpzilla]

The villain has you good here. I'm actually a little surprised that TT is a good call here, according to ICM, what with the two severe shorties. After UTG posts his BB next turn, you're going to have two stacks with just over 1 BB behind. Let them either bust or draw chips from the big stack.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
The villain has you good here. I'm actually a little surprised that TT is a good call here

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed and I certainly don't like CALLING w/ 77-99 as I've seen posted. I'm sure he could be pushing any 2 and I play for first place around the bubble but I'll pick my battles w/ the short stacks before I get after it w/ the chip leader in this situation unless I have a monster.

[tigerite]

99 is just about ok if you are 100% sure it really is any two he is pushing with. In reality it usually isn't. I have a hard time folding QQ-JJ, and always call with AA and KK