9Ts - drawing to flush and straight (15 outs)

lo2dk · #1 07-11-2005, 04:09 PM

This hand was crucial for my SNG and the real decision was taken on the turn. It later shows that my decision costed me the tournament, but was it a bad decision?

Bodog 10$ sng - 8 handed at this point, blinds are 15/30$ no antee

SB (t985)
BB (t1400)
UTG (t2585)
UTG+1 (t197.50)
MP1 (t715)
MP2 (t1325)
lo2dk (t1520)
Btn (t1272.5)

Preflop: lo2dk is me in CutOff position with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] , 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Action: UTG calls, MP2 calls, lo2dk calls, Btn calls, SB calls, BB check

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Action: UTG bet t100, MP2 calls t100, lo2dk calls t100 , remaining active players folds

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Action: UTG bet t200, MP2 calls t200, lo2dk goes allin (t1390).
UTG calls t1190, MP2 folds.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Result: UTG wins the pot, show down his K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and eliminates lo2dk with top two pair

My conclussion: I went allin on turn, even though I could be satisfied with just calling the t200. I didn't put him on any flush or straight draw, otherwise I would only have called at the turn, since I did not have the nut flush/straight draw.
OK so I had 15outs allready at the flop, after missing at turn I was pretty sure I was gonna hit it at river, so why not make him pay allready, when he might not pay if river shows a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ?

I calculated the odds before going allin:
15 outs. 52 - 6 = 46. 46 - 15 = 31. 15/31 = allmost 1/2 (50%). Did I calculate my odds right? If I had allmost 50% chance to hit my winning hand, was it then a good move to go allin or should I just have called? (Forget how the result in this actual situation turned out, but think in long terms of proffit).

EDIT/UPDATE: OK I see that I calculated the odds wrong. The result of 15/46 is just how many bad cards I CANNOT hit in order to win the hand. So I should just say 15/46 instead, giving the result of about 33%... Still i'd like to hear how you would have played this hand.

pooh74 · #2 07-11-2005, 04:24 PM

No you didnt calculate them right. its not that 15 is half of 31 so therefore you're a 50% to hit (maybe win). you have 15 outs, meaning 15 cards left that you hope will give you the winning hand. that leaves 31 cards that could come (you were correct up until here) that will NOT improve your hand to win. so you have roughly twice as many losing cards as winning cards or in %s you're around a 33% or 2-1.

Now, IF you think that the J high flush is good, and that the straight is good (meaning even by hitting your hand you may still lose i.e. someone has Axd or a higher straight draw) then at the point where its your action on the turn, there is 880 in the pot and it's 200 to you to see the last card. You are getting better than 4-1 on a 2-1 chance...these are good odds (plus potential implied odds of making more on the river if you hit). But dont forget to discount a couple of outs for those reverse implied odds...

I dont know what line I may have taken myself...with two in the pot, I like the fact that its more probable to extract chips if i hit...if this were heads up, I might push the flop.

Nottom · #3 07-11-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I calculated the odds before going allin:
15 outs. 52 - 6 = 46. 46 - 15 = 31. 15/31 = allmost 1/2 (50%). Did I calculate my odds right? If I had allmost 50% chance to hit my winning hand, was it then a good move to go allin or should I just have called? (Forget how the result in this actual situation turned out, but think in long terms of proffit).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. You have 15 outs and 31 misses so you will win just under 1/3 of the time. (Note that those same 15 outs make you a slight favorite on the flop since you get 2 shots at them)

I'm usually looking to make a play with this sort of hand on the flop, even agasint a big hand like top 2, you are a slight favorite so if you get all-in and are called thats not a big deal.

If I were to just call on the flop I'd usually just call on the turn but pushing the potential scare card isn't a bad semi-bluff.

tigerite · #4 07-11-2005, 04:29 PM

Raise the flop to about 400. Call the inevitable all-in, but at least then you have 15 outs on both turn and river, rather than what you did.