EV of NL100 10h ring games

[Maulik]

what is the EV in regard to bb/100 over 5000 hands?
What should I expect to make not including variance, anything can and DOES happen?

I use PT for record keeping. I think its 5000/100
2*bb * 10 / 100 hands is my rate.

2*1 * 10 = $20/ 100 hands

obviously becomes $1000. is this correct?

[TheWorstPlayer]

EV = WinRate per hand * HandsPlayed.
or
EV = WinRate per 100 hands / 100 * HandsPlayed.

But that has to be your TRUE win rate. Which cannot be determined over something like 5K hands.

[Maulik]

I am not trying to determine anything over the course of 5k hands, let alone 30k hands.

I am just curious to my expected value and whether I am making the calculation correctly based on the standard 10 bb/100 hands.

[TheWorstPlayer]

OK, then I think your calculation is correct.

EV = WR per hand * hands
EV = .1PTBB * 5000
EV = 500PTBB
EV = 1000bb

So if you are playing .50/1 and your win rate is 10PTBB/100 then it is $1000. Yessir.

[guaranteedBluff]

speaking of EV, what kind of variance/100 hands is desired (i.e. considered to be doing ok, quite well, and simply crushing the game) knowing that the BB/100 is approximately 10.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I don't think you can benchmark your variance along the lines of ok, good, great, etc. Basically, you want your variance as low as possible, given a particular win rate, but often winrates are positively correlated with variance because the best players are lags with high variance. Basically, you can benchmark your win rate against others, and I guess you can benchmark your variance against others with the same win rate, but really you should just care about your win rate.

[guaranteedBluff]

Makes sense. I have been around 10 BB/100 hands with a very high variance, but I suppose that is ok (variance = 20 BB/100). Does this seem apprx. normal to anyone else or is my variance very high?

Also, I have noticed that my true win rate (i.e. 4 tabling) is only ~30 BB/100 (you'd expect 40, right?). Does this mean I'm playing slightly worse by doing 4 at once? Is it enough to justify 3 tables? etc...

[Sephus]

youre playing worse doing 4 at once, of course. i wouldn't expect 40. it's the price you have to pay. if you make 10 bb/100 1-tabling and 30 bb/100 4-tabling, you obviously should NOT drop down to 3 tables.