Can I lay this down?

[Roland]

7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (2.20 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 3: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___raises
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___folds

5th Street - (4.10 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (6.10 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

River - (8.10 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

Total pot: (10.10 BB)

[beta1607]

No- you have to call 7th as another poster once said "if only for the good of society."

[BTirish]

I'd say this one depends on your read of the player, but I'd probably fold it. His betting pattern makes it most likely he was on the flush draw, and there aren't any dead diamonds. If you commit to the call on 5th, you probably have to commit to calling on 6th and 7th. So, paying 3BB to win 7BB (current pot + 3 BB)... you need to expect to win 43% of the time for this to be profitable. Unless you know something about this player, I'd just pass it up and wait for a better spot.

If he has you beat, you're probably drawing to a one-outer and you may be virtually drawing dead (you're virtually dead if he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ).

I just don't think I can say I expect to win this one 43% of the time, unless the player is either very loose or very smart (he might have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the hole).

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
So, paying 3BB to win 7BB (current pot + 3 BB)... you need to expect to win 43% of the time for this to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is paying 3 to win 7, he is getting 7:3 which means his breakeven point is when he wins three times and loses 7 times, which means he needs to win 3 times out of 10, or 30%. Not 3/7.

[BTirish]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is paying 3 to win 7, he is getting 7:3 which means his breakeven point is when he wins three times and loses 7 times, which means he needs to win 3 times out of 10, or 30%. Not 3/7.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I feel dumb [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Now I'm trying to figure if I've been doing pot odds wrong while playing. I think I've been fine with single bets, but been getting it wrong when thinking about situations like this. D'oh. Thanks for the correction.

[mscags]

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I don't see any reason to believe that he actually has the flush. Yeah he has three [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s on his board but I would at least put in a raise and try to find out. Am I missing something obvious here [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Andy B]

I bet out on fourth. He hasn't given you a reason to fold. I would probably stick a raise in at some point myself, and if he three-bets you, and he's not the sort that would do this without a flush, you can lay it down then, but not just because he's betting. Calling it down is a good line, because you minimize your losses when you're beaten, and you maximize your winnings when he's got garbage. You only cost yourself money in the cases where he has a good second-best hand that he'll call a raise with, and I don't think he'll have that very often. But no way do I fold.

[Bartholow]

I think folding here would be a huge mistake.