The mirage of a winning session

[Greg J]

Disclaimer: this is not meant to be Greg's pitty party post. This is a legit question.

(I also posted this in the general forum.)

I have a question about feeling like you are winning where you are not. I am in the midst of paying my dues in my first major downswing (169 bbs so far). I understand that such swings are part of the normal variance any poker player can expect. I get that. There is, however, something I have been noticing that I find disturbing.

In the midst of this streak there have been several sessions that I "felt" like I came out ahead. Usually I am able to properly assert how good of a session I had. However, lately I will play what I felt was a winning session to see that I was actually down for the session. One of these was actually 20 bbs!!! I just finished a session where I knew I was up... I mean I was positive. Only I was down 3 bbs at the end of it.

Normal variance is part of the game. I realize that I am still relatively inexperienced and am in the process of paying dues. It's cool -- I'm fine with that. However, this trend of "seeing" winning sessions that are not there is probably the most disturbing thing about this experience. Just when I think I'm getting over the hump, it turns out that I'm not.

So, my question is: do any of you guys experience anything similar in the midst of downswings? I.e., is this a "normal" experience?

Also (contingent on the answer to the above question): how do you deal with it (and by extension suggest I deal with it)? Take a few days off? A week? Perhaps step away until I see "clearly" again?

Thanks,
Greg

PS: While I appreciate the "buck up soldier" response to people when they are on downswings, I want to make it clear I am not fishing for anything of the sort. I know that I am not a special little snowflake, and please don't treat me as such.

[bisonbison]

Greg, there's no such thing as paying dues.

There are worse rationalizations, but this one is still akin to the fundamental player's error: my variance has something to do with myself.

We look seek rationalizations because they are comforting. Disorder is scary. Randomness is scary. Bad results are scary. And finding a reason other than "I am the same player, and variance happens" makes things less scary. It doesn't make those reasons true.

You have to recognize that you are trying to impose a narrative where none exists.

You have the same knowledge and skills when you are up X BB in Y time as you do when you are down Z BB in Y time. Your emotional state is also part of your playing ability, and that may erode under the pressure of losing, but you have the same knowledge you have always had, whether you are well, neutral or bad.

It is quite possible that you are playing well and running bad. However, if you haven't accepted that this is a real possibility, you will always be running into a cognitive block that will lead you astray.

Evaluate your play, then look at your results. In the short term, the two are in no way correlated.

[Greg J]

Thanks for the response. I understand that the concept "paying dues" might be a rationalization, but since all players go through this experience -- that is it is something that goes with the territory -- it is, in a sense paying dues. Dealing with the first major downswing makes dealing with subsequent ones easier -- at least hopefully.

Perhaps my finishing a session where I say, "okay, that went well," only to find myself down X bbs at the end of it is a mental trick, something like Festinger's cognitive dissonance or Heider's balance theory (which interstingly enough I am incorporating into my disseratation).

My general question was: have other people expereinced this illusion of winning while losing? If so, what do they do about it?

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
My general question was: have other people expereinced this illusion of winning while losing? If so, what do they do about it?

[/ QUOTE ]

The fish do this all the time. Since they are not EV aware, they only look at the size of their stack.

If you are playing well, you are winning. If not, you are losing. The number of chips in front of you at any moment in time is not really that important overall.

Dov

[thomastem]

How bout saying you are paying for an education rather than dues?

This is your first big downswing so how detached, how clinical are you at reviewing your sessions for leaks in your game?

Once you evaluate your performance then you can answer if you were outplayed or outdrawn.

Along with what Bison is saying keep in mind that you can have monster profit sessions but were outplayed and you can have bad sessions where you outplayed your opponents.