whats the play?

[PocketStraight]

this is a hand i played at the foxwoods $1-$2 NL game, $100 buy-in. there is a ridiculous rake of $5 every half hour. the game is pretty loose pre-flop, a $10 preflop raise will still usually have 4 players, lots of people seeing the flop with crap and then folding. villian is LAG, i saw him raise with TPMK.

Villian($110) is UTG, Hero($115) is button with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] . villian calls, EP1 calls, EP2 calls, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

FLOP: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian bets $15, EP1 calls, EP2 calls, Hero raises to $50, fold, fold, Villian raises all-in to $105, EP1 folds, EP2 folds.

call or fold here? what does villian have? how was my bet on the flop?

i'll post tomorrow with what i did...

[PokerFink]

Have to fold. I'l list the possible hands that villian can have (assuming that he isn't a total moron on a bluff).

HANDS YOU BEAT
AK, KQ, K10, Flush Draw

That's pretty much it. He would raise preflop with AK, so we can rule that out. He probably woulden't re-raise on a push with KQ or K10, so we can rule those out. Flush draw is possible if he is making a play, but even then he has outs, and it's pretty unlikely that he has this. Just because he is LAG, doesn't mean he is stupid.

HANDS THAT HAVE YOU CRIPPLED
KJ, K9, 99, QT

ALL of these hands are limpers, even from ep, if the player is LAG. And if he has any of these hands, you have a whopping 2 outs to make a boat, except the straight, in which case you have 4.

HANDS THAT HAVE YOU DEAD
KK, JJ

JJ he would have raised preflop with, so we can ignore that, but KK is a definite possibility, because he could have attempted a limp-re-raise.

So as you can see, there are a ton of hands that have you beat, and only one or two that you beat (the flush draw and perhaps KQ or K10), but he would have to be VERY stupid to push with any of those 3 hands.

The only other possibility is a combination hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], which is a possibility because dumb players push with these hands ALL the time in lower stakes NL games. But again, he has outs (9 hearts, 3 aces), and I wouldent take the chance that he is stupid and is pushing with that kind of hand.

Easy laydown.

[Moderator]

I agree. Definitely laydown. There are very few hands he would push with that you can beat. His play looks to me like a higher two pair or a set of jacks. I also recommend staying away from Foxwoods. Although there are plenty of fish, the the rakes are ridiculous and the games on the whole are much less profitable. Try the Trop, Borgata, or Taj in AC.

[schwza]

i would call. you've seen the guy raise with TPMK, why do you think he won't 3-bet with it. you're getting ~140:55, or better than 2.5:1. you can't be shocked to see hands as bad as QQ or AJ here given your description and the general suckiness of the F'woods player - i'd make the crying call and expect to be shown a K.

moderator, why do you prefer the AC games? what are the rakes in those games? i've heard foxwoods discussed as having the softest hold em games in the country...

[PokerFink]

Schwza, you're basing the call on the fact that you think the other player is basically a moron. Yes, he could show QQ, I didn't think of that, but pushing with QQ is pretty braindead at this point. The raiser is representing ATLEAST a strong king, and since we don't think the LAG player has AK (since he limped), he knows that any pair of kings or jacks is beat.

If the LAG player is dumb enough to push with what is obviously the worst hand, and you know this, then you can make the call. But thats a BIG if.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
If the LAG player is dumb enough to push with what is obviously the worst hand, and you know this, then you can make the call. But thats a BIG if.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even then a call might not be correct. Just because he WOULD do it with garbage doesn't mean he IS doing it with garbage in this instance. If you have enough cash to keep buying back in and if the big if above is true, then call, sure, but if this player is really that bad, you can probably get his money at a time when you are a more clear cut favorite.

[JohnG]

I think folding here would be an error. A big error. You don't commit a tonne of chips and then fold when in doubt.

Your raise on flop has committed you to going for the rest of it once it gets back to you headsup. Your raise amount was the error in the hand. Folding in this spot would compound it. fact is your small raise put you in a spot where they either fold or go allin with any hand they are going to play. You are now facing a relatively small allin bet, having committed a large amount, and guessing. You put yourself in a spot where you have to call because of the odds and the doubt. Not good. Folding when halfway in even worse. Grit your teeth and put it in.

You solve this unpleasant situation at it's source. Given the ratios, I think your decision on this hand comes once it's bet and called to you on the flop. Either committ for all your chips (by raising allin) or fold. I don't see folding being that wrong given the action, texture of flop, and your hand.

[JohnG]

BTW, as I read it, he's getting about 4-1 on the allin call.

[PocketStraight]

thanks for the advice everyone. youre right johnG, i felt committed to call even though i did it very reluctantly and feeling like i was behind. villian showed top two and i lost my whole stack. however i cant see how pushing on the flop could have been a good play. wouldnt i get called by all the hands that could beat me, and few of the hands that were behind me (perhaps flush draws will call but thats about it)? i'm thinking that is a -EV play because a call would mean i lose my stack. i was also thinking that i could have bet harder on the flop, but wouldnt that also make me more pot-committed? what should i have bet on the flop?

[Moderator]

hey schwza, the AC games take rakes the same way as all the online sites, by taking a small percentage of each pot, with a reasonable maximum per pot. this means you are only paying rake for the pots you are involved in. for tags such as myself, this allows me to be patient and wait for hands without being scared of getting raked to oblivion. i also noticed that the ridiculous semi-hourly rake forces people to play super-loose, since they wanna use their money to play hands, not pay foxwoods. the result is lots of maniacs, which forces me play even tighter, which means less hands per hour and compounds the damage done by a time-based rake.

also, you can buy-in for $300 at the $1-2 tables in AC compared to $100 at foxwoods.