A bet too far?

[naphand]

I kinda feel this is the correct play for trips. But it was UltimateBet, and a raise means?

My opponent here is loose and plays a little over-aggro. His handle does contain the word "blow" so I couldn't resist... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Naphand is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="CC3333">CO <font color="purple">(BlowJob)</font> raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Naphand 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls, CO <font color="purple">(BlowJob)</font> calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
MP checks, BlowJob checks, <font color="CC3333">Naphand bets</font>, MP folds, BlowJob calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BlowJob checks, <font color="CC3333">Naphand bets</font>, BlowJob calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BlowJob checks, <font color="CC3333">Naphand bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BlowJob raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Naphand 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BlowJob caps</font>, Naphand calls.

Final Pot: 16.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 16.75 BB, between BlowJob and Naphand.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Naphand shows Qs Qc (three of a kind, queens).
BlowJob shows Js Ad (straight, ace high).
Outcome: BlowJob wins 16.75 BB. </font>

Given the raise PF, I am only beaten by KK (no cap PF so I cannot put him on this) and AJ. Given my previous comments about how tight UB is, and given my read on this player - I have to put the 3rd bet in here surely? I think if I was 3-bet by him, I just call.

PokerStove says 72% EV on the Turn to anyone with solid raising standards (excluding AA/KK/AKs/AKo which would certainly be capped and QQ), if anything his standards may be a touch loose.

[Guido]

I don't think you can play it any differently. I think he outplayed you by waiting until the river before going to war.

Guido

[naphand]

Yes.

I know most UB players have a great hand when they CR like this, but I have to balance this with the over-aggro plays this guy had made. He was losing chips.

At the time I figured only KK and AJ can beat me, and KK is very unlikely. Having thought about it more, there are also very few hands he CR me with; possibly KQ, possibly AK or AA/TT. But he must know I have a hand, and the 3 is very unlikely to be any help to him (unless he is raising 33 PF, again I don't think he was that tanked). So I am forced to reconsider the Turn, there are enough tricky types on UB to make the Turn his real card, there is a lot of slow-play and CR. So I am really left with KQ, TT or AJ, possibly AA/AK/KK but I don't think so (no cap PF, and KK gets CR on the Turn).

Trouble is, I just cannot stomach calling a single raise with a hand like this. It would have taken a big read to just call the River CR, it could be done, and I would have been very pleased with myself for doing it from a result point of view, but that starts to look like fear-of-the-nuts and I turn into a UB regular.... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]