Yet another hand played like a fish?

Schneids · #1 07-13-2004, 08:24 PM

I'm going on a posting spree today! Are there any qualms with my actions or do 'implied odds' back them up?

EDIT: My reads on both players involved is that they're slightly overaggressive. UTG I have marked as a 15PFR, if that helps with anything PF.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Schneids is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, MP calls, Schneids calls, 3 folds,

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, MP raises, Schneids calls, UTG 3-bets, MP calls, Schneids calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, MP raises, Schneids 3-bets, UTG calls, MP calls.

River: (17.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Schneids bets, UTG folds, MP calls.

Final Pot: 19.25 BB
Main Pot: 19.25 BB, between MP and Schneids. > Pot won by Schneids (19.25 BB).

Results in white below: 
MP shows Qs Ks (two pair, kings and queens).
Schneids shows Ah Jh (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Schneids wins 19.25 BB.

Nate tha' Great · #2 07-13-2004, 08:34 PM

I don't think the call on the flop makes you money.

Peter_rus · #3 07-13-2004, 08:43 PM

I do believe that call on flop worth your money. You have very big implyed odds when you collect well hidden straight (which can make to someone 2 pairs or set and you'll get action) or flush. I would call here too.

P.S. I feel like im the one of the most laggy people on these forums. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Ulysses · #4 07-13-2004, 08:52 PM

I think your read on at least one of your opponents is off. Given that the turn did not get capped here, I don't think the flop call makes you money. It's close, though.

fyodor · #5 07-13-2004, 09:23 PM

I call the turn for one bet here but dump for two everytime. That's just the way I've always done it. If someone can show me math that I'm wrong and should call for two please do.

Peter_rus · #6 07-13-2004, 09:39 PM

The math is simple. He has immediate odds around 1:10 to take his inside straight (even not to mention 1:25 to catch back-door flush and cases when catching A is good). The pot offers 1:4.5BB (actually even more concluding original bettor would call). So if he hit - he needed to collect 5.5BB to make his move - good move. He took 6BB extra only on turn.

Ulysses · #7 07-13-2004, 09:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The math is simple. He has immediate odds around 1:10 to take his inside straight (even not to mention 1:25 to catch back-door flush and cases when catching A is good). The pot offers 1:4.5BB (actually even more concluding original bettor would call). So if he hit - he needed to collect 5.5BB to make his move - good move. He took 6BB extra only on turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite so simple. Given the action so far, it is often common to pay 3 or 4 SB on the flop (since of course once he calls once he will not fold on flop). In fact, in this case he ended up paying 3, so he needs a total of 15BB, not a total of 10BB.

Let's see. 8.25BB in the pot. He put in 1.5BB on the flop. That means 6.75BB. So he needs 8.25BB to make it good, right? If so, I think he only got 8BB.

Am I correct here?

In making the correct calculation, you also need to take into account the times he is counterfeited by a full-house and the times he pays off w/ an Ace.

That is why the math (while not hard) is not quite as simple as you make it and in this case I believe it is close, but slightly unprofitable.

As I said, to swing this to profitable, I think you need aggressive opponents who will go off for more bets than they did when making top two pair.

PS: Of course, we also on the plus side add in a little bit for the times his Ace is good and the backdoor flush chances. But we then take away a bit for the times he catches a flush draw on the turn but misses everything on the river. All things to take into account.

Peter_rus · #8 07-13-2004, 10:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not quite so simple. Given the action so far, it is often common to pay 3 or 4 SB on the flop (since of course once he calls once he will not fold on flop). In fact, in this case he ended up paying 3, so he needs a total of 15BB, not a total of 10BB.

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No you're wrong. Let assume that he knew that it will be 3-betting and all called. So he has immediate odds 3SB/13.5SB which equals 1:4.5. IT'S THE SAME ODDS (seem nonsense heh?). That's why he KNOWS that it will be called around. If he don't knows this (usually) and original bettor can fold - odds will be around 1:4. If flop was capped and all called his immediate odds 4:15.5 which equals 1:3.87. Even in that case - not all so bad, agree?

[ QUOTE ]
In making the correct calculation, you also need to take into account the times he is counterfeited by a full-house and the times he pays off w/ an Ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

To make a really correct calculation you must also take into account cases when he catches his back-door flush and also cases when first player bets with Q8s and second raises with KQ - so if ace come turn he would be a leader. Also take to mention rare (but not so unbelievable, agree?) cases of running JJ or running aces to intercept flopped 2pairs for him. The last could be happens near 1% of time with such action on flop.

I believe it will be nearly equal for him as to be intercepted by full houses and fours.

[ QUOTE ]
PS: Of course, we also on the plus side add in a little bit for the times his Ace is good and the backdoor flush chances. But we then take away a bit for the times he catches a flush draw on the turn but misses everything on the river. All things to take into account.

[/ QUOTE ]

Take also into account cases when someone catch the same back door lower flush (with KhQh for eg) or has AJ too (first player for e.g. ) but flushed on river. This can improve his winnings.

At all i think this flop call is a profitable move against players who usually don't call (would raise) TPTK against a single raise on flop.

Ulysses · #9 07-13-2004, 10:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No you're wrong. Let assume that he knew that it will be 3-betting and all called. So he has immediate odds 3SB/13.5SB which equals 1:4.5. IT'S EQUAL (seem nonsense heh?). That's why he KNOW that it will be called around. If he don't know this - odds will be around 1:5.

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Huh?

You are telling me that the total # of bets he needs to collect stay the same whether he invest 1BB or 1.5BB on the flop? No.

I think we more or less agree on all the other factors (some for, some against) that need to be taken into account and I suspect when you combine them all they won't have too significant an effect on the outcome.

Peter_rus · #10 07-13-2004, 10:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are telling me that the total # of bets he needs to collect stay the same whether he invest 1BB or 1.5BB on the flop? No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just compare two relations 2:9 and 3:13.5.

1 case he call 2SB cold thinking that 1st player can fold
2 case he call 2 SB cold assuming it will be 3-betted and no one folds and he will call another bet again.

If he knows for sure that it will be capped and no one folds odds will be 4:15.5 which equivalent 1:3.875
He needs to collect 6.2BB in that case.