OM8 -- what would U do?

[Carl_William]

OM8 -- what would U do?

You are “on-the-button” in a fairly loose limit OM8 game and everybody has lots of chips: You are dealt: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]; two players limp in ahead of you; you gypsy in; Small Blind completes; Big Blind checks (5 players & 2.5 BBs in pot). FLOP is: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. All check to you (You have top two pair & no flush draws on board yet).

“Scenario 1:” All check flop to you; and you bet, and all players call (5 BBs now in the pot). Turn is 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB bets: Big Blind and one limper call. Pot now contains 8 Big Bets. What should you do? Probably: there is a slight negative expectation associated with this event? I’m assuming most players will usually call.

“Scenario 2:” All check flop to you; and you check, and all players call (2.5 BBs still in the pot). Turn is 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB bets: Big Blind and one limper call. Pot now contains 5.5 Big Bets. What should you do? There is now a significant negative expectation associated with you making a call? I’m assuming most experts will fold and loose players call.

I’m assuming all OM8 players are faced with situations like this. For me, making decisions in similar situations are not always easy. When I fold and the full house hits on the river, I usually have regrets – especially in one table “Sit & Go” tournaments at Party Poker. I feel that I should always call for the river for “Scenario 1” in early betting rounds (lower blinds) in “Sit & Go” tournaments at Party.

[Beavis68]

you bet the flop and you fold the turn. Too much of a chance of splitting the pot is a J hits, so that leaves you drawing to 4 outs, wich the other must have one way or another to keep in the pot.

[Buzz]

Hi Carl - The difference between the scenarios is threefold.
• First, you're getting eight to one in scenario one and five to one in scenario two.
• Second, your opponents, particularly SB, should expect you to have some kind of fit with the flop in scenario one (see below) but not in scenario two.
• Third, you may not need to improve in scenario two, but you almost surely have to improve in scenario one.

In either case you have four outs for a full house (kings and queens) plus four more outs for a Broadway. 44-8 = 36 cards do not help you on the river.
Thus the odds against improving on the river are 36 to 8 (4.5 to 1), without consideration of what your opponents might hold.

I strongly prefer scenario one to scenario two because I have a better idea of where I stand (against most players).

Scenario one: From your opponent's point of view, when you bet this flop, you should
• (1) have AKJT, AQJT, or KQJT.
• (2) have top set (kings),
• (3) have middle set (queens),
• (4) have top two pair,
• (5) have top/bottom two pair, or
• (6) be trying a positional steal with something else.

When SB bets the turn, thus representing the Broadway, it should be with the full expectation that you will either call or raise (unless your bet on the second betting round was a positional steal attempt). You have to wonder what the two callers are holding. The scary thought is they're holding some of your outs decreasing your chances of improving and also decreasing your chance of scooping if the river is a jack, queen, or king. (You may have to split the pot).

Bottom line: If you give your opponents credit for having sense, you fold. Sometimes that’s the tricky part - knowing whether to give them credit for having sense or not.

In theory, if you bet the flop from the button you’re less likely to face a bet from a SB who has not made the Broadway here - and you’re also less likely to get those pesky callers.

Scenario two: From your opponent's point of view, you probably missed the flop and are not a force to be reckoned with. SB could very likely be trying to steal. Who knows what cards the limpers hold, possibly putting SB on a “right of first bluff” steal attempt?

Bottom line: I think you have to call both here (because you have odds to draw) and then call a single bet again on the river if you miss (because of the size of the pot and because your top two pair might win this pot).

-----

I wrote the above before re-reading your post and realizing that you would expect most players would call in scenario one and most experts would fold in scenario two. Interesting.

But I could never be in scenario two. In my humble opinion, if you're going to limp to see the flop from the button with
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then I think when the flop is
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], you bet the flop for two reasons: (1) your bet might take the pot, and (2) to avoid the dilemma you probably will face in scenario two if you don’t bet the flop.

Most of the time you’re not going to flop a nut flush, nut low, full house, or quads when you play A4QK-suited. But the hand has great high card strength and a chance for low. In my humble opinion, you want to play the hand fast rather than slow. One could make a good argument for raising before the flop with the hand against most opponents. I might raise sometimes and call others, depending a bit on my opponents and the situation, but also wanting to mix it up here. But whichever you do, especially when you limp before the flop, when you make kings and queens as top two pair on the flop and everybody checks to you, I think you have to pop it.

I think to play the hand otherwise, is simply not using enough of the potential of the hand to make it worth playing in the first place. What I'm saying is if you can't play this hand aggressively from the button after flopping top two pair and having the betting checked to you, then I don't think you should play it at all.

Just my opinion.

Regards.

Buzz

[akaLogic]

Buzz, I agree completely, you have to bet this hand on the flop. I was thinking as I read your response that shorthanded, a raise before the flop is certainly in order. I'm not sure I would have done it at a full table, but you seem to think of it almost automatically. Kudos.

A couple of things bother me about this hand. First, 4 players and me seeing the flop is NOT my definition of a loose Omaha game. Second, I absolutely don't understand the play of the limpers. Maybe the problem is that I don't have a feel for the game from the original post. If sb is even somewhat reasonable, and both limpers are The Main Attraction, then it could make sense. Sb is on a set of tens (KTT9), and the limpers have junk. I know sb should have a straight, but my opponents always have sets here.

The limpers are a problem. I am shocked that we did not lose at least one low draw. You could put one on an A2TK, and he is still alive for a J, but 2 of them? No one should be really strong if the all checked the flop. I wish I knew more about the players once again, limping twice is the way some players would play a set of 5's, but that doesn't seem like this game.

I wouldn't know how to play senario 2 either. Senario 1 I would probably fold figuring that too many of my outs were gone, and if I did make a broadway, I might only get a part of the pot. Still a temptation to call and play for a monster pot on the river with K's full vs T's full vs 5's full.

[chaos]

I’m replying without reading the others responses. So forgive me if I repeat points they make.

I think you need to bet the flop here. The flop has hit your hand fairly well giving you top tw0 pair. You also have a backdoor nut flush draw and a weak low draw. In my opinion checking is a big mistake. If the flop comes with only one low card and you have a credible high hand, you can not let your opponents draw to a second low card for free. You should also charge any straight draws to try and catch you.

When the ten comes after you have shown strength on the flop, it is easier to fold to the SB’s bet. If everyone checks the flop, he may just be trying to claim an unwanted pot.