4 Flush Probabilty Question

BIGRED · #1 02-11-2004, 01:08 AM

This is my first post in the Probability Forum. It has to do with flopping a 4 card flush and knowing if it make sense for me to build up the pot by raising.

Ok... I'm not a stats person, but I did study probabilty for a semester in college so this is what I'm thinking. Let me know if I got it right.

If I have a 4 card flush after the flop, then the chances of me ending up with a flush is "pretty good". With the turn and the river coming, I have 2 chances to hit my flush card.

So,

P(getting a flush given I have a 4 flush after the flop)

= P(hitting on the turn) + P(missing the turn and hitting the river)

= (9/47) + [(38/47) * (9/46)] (Did I get this right?)

= 0.35

So based on this, how do I proceed with the betting if I wanted to manipulate the pot odds in my favor... of course this is assuming I have Axs. And to simplifiy the matter, let's say noboday will get a full house or better, even if the board pairs in the process of me getting the flush. The assumption is if I get the flush I will win.

BIGRED · #2 02-11-2004, 03:37 PM

Well... no responses yet. Did I ask a dumb question? or is there something wrong with this question?

How about this? Did I at least get the probability right?

Mano · #3 02-11-2004, 04:50 PM

You got the probability right. Translating this to odds, you are about a 1.86:1 dog right now. If there are 2 or more people in the pot with you who will call all bets, you are making money on every bet this round, assuming that if you hit your hand it is good. That is often not a correct assumption.