#1
|
|||
|
|||
Chances of breaking even
Can someone help me calculate the chances of breaking even or losing over an extended period of time for a given WR and SD?
I vaguely remember a post with the formulas here in the past, but I can't seem to find it using the search function. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Chances of breaking even
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone help me calculate the chances of breaking even or losing over an extended period of time for a given WR and SD? I vaguely remember a post with the formulas here in the past, but I can't seem to find it using the search function. [/ QUOTE ] EV (after x hours) = EV*x SD (after x hours) = SD*sqrt(x) Probability of breaking even or being behind is N(-EV/SD), where N is the normal distribution. So, it's N([-EV*x]/[SD*sqrt(x)]), or N([-EV/SD]*sqrt(x)) The easiest way to solve is by using the <font color="green">=normsdist()</font> function in Excel. I hope you're enjoying California. -- Homer |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Chances of breaking even
Here's a quick example. Say your EV is 1 BB/hr and your SD is 10 BB/hr.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> x P(behind) 1 46.02% 10 37.59% 50 23.97% 100 15.87% 500 1.27% 1000 0.08%</pre><hr /> -- Homer |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Chances of breaking even
The easiest way to solve...
Great. I think I can handle that. I hope you're enjoying California. Yup, so far so good. Thanks for asking. |
|
|