Calling with AKo

PrayingMantis · #1 11-26-2004, 01:21 PM

Hi all,

Well, I'm back I guess, took a little forum-break. This is from a $55+5 on stars.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero (t2475)
SB (t4070)
BB (t1685)
UTG (t2695)
MP (t2575)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, MP raises to t2575, Hero...

MP is a bit on the LAG side, but not too much. This is his second time pushing PF, but the first time was significantly earlier, when he had a relatively short stack.

Some more about the game: It's not a particularly tough field. UTG is an OK player, SB is half-maniac, BB is loose-passive. Any interesting thoughts about this situation?

mackthefork · #2 11-26-2004, 03:09 PM

Most of the time I will be putting this down, however if you believe theres a strong possiblilty that either SB or BB call as well, preferably with something you dominate, then it could be a good opportunity to accumulate a winning stack. Given the relative stack positions a money finish is not guaranteed by any means.

What do you think?

Regards Mack

Bigwig · #3 11-26-2004, 03:11 PM

This is a tough one. I think you can rule out large pocket pairs. He's most likely overbetting with something he's confident he can win with, but is afraid of either a reraise from someone using their folding equity, or playing a hand that is difficult after the flop if it doesn't hit. So, mid pocket pairs are probable, as well as hands like ATs, AJ, AQ, etc. It's such an overbet, and your stack sizes are so similar, that I might let this one go.

But, the fact that he may have some Ax hand makes me think that the odds may balance this out. I probably call.

PrayingMantis · #4 11-26-2004, 03:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you believe theres a strong possiblilty that either SB or BB call as well

[/ QUOTE ]

Very small chance for this, I think. *Maybe* one of them will call with AQ, very small chances of AJ, but I really can't be sure of it. I can see even some very bad players mucking AQ after 2 all-ins at this buy-in, if it's for a big portion of their stack or all of it.

I'd say that calling here with AKo is definitely +chipEV (depending, of course, on the range of pushing hands), but not hugely so. The problem is that you risk your whole stack in this point for what is basically not much more than the blinds (i.e, that's about the CEV), which are not that high now, and you have 0 FE, which is always a significant part of your EV when you raise as opposed to call (that's why pushing with garbage is sometimes much better than calling with OK hands). I can see good reasons for calling and for mucking, that's why I'm interested in discussing it.

_RD · #5 11-26-2004, 03:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can see even some very bad players mucking AQ after 2 all-ins at this buy-in, if it's for a big portion of their stack or all of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain this statement? Why would a very bad player muck AQ after 2 all-ins? Wouldn't AQ most likely be dominated in this situation? Not to mention if going up against any A and an underpair, one of his outs is eaten also.

mackthefork · #6 11-26-2004, 03:41 PM

Well I put you UTG down for pushing AJ+ ATs+ and pocket pairs 66-JJ, I think that most people will play the big ones slower, though I coud be way off here. If this range is accurate you rank 55% vs his 45%, if you think he does the same with QQ KK and AA it is still 52/48 in your favour plus you have the SB and BB as well, so its +365 and +209 CEV respectively, it 'feels' like your CEV and dollar EV should be quite close together at this stage, if this is the case it seems calling is the correct option.

Regards Mack

PrayingMantis · #7 11-26-2004, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can see even some very bad players mucking AQ after 2 all-ins at this buy-in, if it's for a big portion of their stack or all of it.

[/ QUOTE ] Could you explain this statement? Why would a very bad player muck AQ after 2 all-ins? Wouldn't AQ most likely be dominated in this situation? Not to mention if going up against any A and an underpair, one of his outs is eaten also.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said it in reply to mack's suggestion that if I think SB or BB will call with dominated hands, then calling in my position with AKo is good.

You are correct of course that AQ is a bad hand to call after two all-ins, and that was my exact point: I think that even some pretty bad players realize this, and would muck AQ. I didn't say that "a bad player would muck AQ", as many bad players will call with AQ, but it's bad enough move that I can even see some bad players who won't do it. I hope my wording is now more clear. This becomes more of a logical-grammatical problem now... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

_RD · #8 11-26-2004, 04:10 PM

OK, good. I was just thinking that maybe there was some good reason to call with AQ that I had no idea about [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

mackthefork · #9 11-26-2004, 05:42 PM

Come on guys lets get some decent replys on this thread, admit it its the most interesting question you've seen on here for days,and not as simple as it first seems, if you don't I'm gonna keep doing Thunder Keller impressions all night [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

Regards Mack

tallstack · #10 11-26-2004, 05:54 PM

This is a pretty interesting situation IMO. I am guessing that in terms of of $EV you will likely have to win around 55% of the time to come out ahead (I don't have a 5 player ICM or any other way to calc $EV for this). The half maniac behind you may also join in a small percentage of the time here since he has you both covered by a fair amount. This may work against you slightly.

A lot comes down to what you believe about the raiser. In his position, I would be more inclined to push rather than a standard raise due to the SB maniac. If he would push 25% or more of hands here then this should become a clear call. I believe that I would push at somewhere around this amount in this situation. At any rate, I don't think this is going to be very large +$EV unless he is quite loose.

The counter argument regarding the toughness of the table and the high risk of busting on this hand is valid IMO. If you believe that you can steal a fair amount of the time against this lineup then the call becomes less desirable.

From the info you gave I would call this. It's just too good of a hand based on my guess of the raiser's standards.

Dave S