So I folded my pocket Aces...

#1 08-20-2005, 08:19 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.75.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (12 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP3 raises, Hero folds

Both MP1 and MP3 were very passive, preflop raise of 0% on both, postflop aggression ratings of .5 and .7.

Given their sudden uncharacteristic aggression, I felt I was right in laying down my wonderful pocket aces. Am I wrong?

adsman · #2 08-20-2005, 09:01 AM

If these guys are very passive then they're not 3 betting draws, so you can count out the flush and the str8 possibilities. That leaves 2 pair or a set. You're getting 6.5 to 1 on the turn call, which isn't really enough. That turn raise really fecked you, didn't it.

@bsolute_luck · #3 08-20-2005, 09:07 AM

i hate these situations with loose/passives. yes, they could have you beat, but they also just could be getting goofy with TP or some combination of draws or i've seen KK-JJ limped and played this way.

i'm probably seeing the showdown with the size of the pot and number of hands they could have and that they may think you have UI overcards. so really the only way to make them not think you have UI overcards is to cap the flop, which some will probably suggest, but something i never seem to do against loose/passives [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

all that wishy-washy jabbering to say: i would have called down if i've seen less than 2pair played this way [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img], but don't think your fold was terrible.

Webster · #4 08-20-2005, 09:36 AM

I think your were wrong folding pocket Aces. What do you think they have - 2 pair? All that means is that if any of those cards pair up you have them beat unless it it gives them a boat.

The college guys are no playing and they have spent an entire summer playing NL in home games. They COULD be trying to push you out of a pot with top pair only!! This has happened to me more then once in higher limit games.

I gotta suck it up and call but the fold was not a REAL bad thing - you were at the table and know the conditions better.

I think this is one time where you have to trust your instincts.

How many hands have you gottin a read on them.

your in a sucky situation but

Grinderswarehouse - NOT just another BLOG

#5 08-20-2005, 09:49 AM

Firsr, I probably cap the flop and make mp1 call 2 more to stay in - although he already did call 2 cold so you probably won't get him to fold.

That's a tough fold on the turn. How solid are your reads? What can they have?
MP3 could have 88, 99, 22, 89, less likely ar 82, 92 unless he's super loose. I doubt he has an over pair (maybe TT) - even an LP would probably raise PF, at least with JJ+. He could also have 9x or even 8x (x probably T+), a str8 draw or 2 hearts, but if your read is good he probably wouldn't raise on a draw.

MP1 is the mystery. He checks the flop, calls 2 cold then fires out on the turn. Would he do that with a gutshot (QJ). He has implied odds to make the call. JT for an OESD is more likely is more likely.

All in all, it seems like a good fold. At best, you have 2 outs, and you might be drawing dead.

droolie · #6 08-20-2005, 10:31 AM

Good fold. Given your read on these opponents you are certainly behind and quite possibly drawing dead. You aren't closing the action and might have to pay 4BB just to see the river if the action on the turn is capped. While this is unlikely i tmakes calling these two BB's just not worth the very slim chance you are ahead or have more than 2 outs.

Redd · #7 08-20-2005, 11:17 AM

If MP3's VPIP is >40, I'll cap the flop.

Turn is a good fold, since you're beating both of them quite rarely and you won't have odds to draw. But I have a hunch the results are going to be that MP3 had A9 and MP1 had a jack or 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s.

#8 08-20-2005, 11:55 AM

So everyone thinks capping the betting on the flop was a good idea. Under normal circumstances I would have, but the 3-bet on the flop scared me. In 45 minutes at that table, I think that was the only 3-bet I'd seen on the flop. And the player who did it had a vp$IP of 75%, so he'd been in almost every hand. I don't see him waking up and 3-betting on a pair of 9's or a flush draw. He could very well have had 89, 82, 92, or 88, 99, 22.

And MP1's opening bet on the turn bothered me equally. After the 3 bet on the flop, and after my preflop raise, why is he betting, knowing he will be raised? He isn't doing this on a pair of Tens.

I figured MP3 as having two pairs or a set by the turn, and MP1 as having two pairs, a set, or even a straight.

Under average circumstances, I'd have stayed in, but this was a very passive table, 45 minutes of me being the only aggressive player there while everyone else checked and called unless they got a great hand.

DocMartin · #9 08-20-2005, 11:57 AM

You arent wrong, its pretty rare that you are still ahead here, thats what reads are for. Hopefully they both showed down to help those reads out even more.

bozlax · #10 08-20-2005, 12:28 PM

How solid are your reads? Are they based solely on PT stats, or do your observations of these players support them? How many hands make up those stats? Etc/etc/etc.

That said, against unknowns (and, 25-50 hands in PT qualifies them as unknown) or players for whom your read is solid, I think this is a fine laydown. It's going to be really expensive for you to draw to second-best hand, and you might get information for free if they show down against each other.