|
|
|
|
#1
11-15-2003, 07:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
AXs odds
I'm not real good with odds yet. Could someone help me figure the odds of hitting an A high flush. when the flop hits only 1 of your suit.
Thanx 
|
|
#2
11-15-2003, 07:38 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AXs odds
I think this is right...
you have 10 hearts left out of 47 cards on the turn (10/47 or .21) and 9 hearts of 46 cards on the river (9/46 or .20) multiply these numbers together. .21*.20=.042 (4.2% or 1/22.8) So you are about a 23:1 dog to go runner runner. Someone please correct me if I am wrong. TheRake
|
|
#3
11-15-2003, 09:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AXs odds
The Rake is very close. Majorkong did the math in a thread a few weeks ago and it was very similar. He compared it two the odds of making a set after you missed on the flop. He said that you could add about 1.5 outs to what other outs you have. He has been around today. Im sure he will correct me if Im wrong.
|
|
#4
11-15-2003, 10:20 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AXs odds
I get the exact same numbers as The Rake. I'm wondering how majorkong figures 1.5 effective outs added to it. I know you have aproximately equivelant to a 1 outter with 22.8 odds to the river. (22.5 odds to make 1.0 out)
|
|
#5
11-16-2003, 01:23 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AXs odds
Thanx for info folks. THe reason I asked is the hand below.
Party Poker 1/2 (8 handed) Hero has T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and is MP2 UTG limps, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls Flop(6 SB): 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls Turn(5 BB): 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls River(8 BB): 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, BB folds Of course my opponent flipped Axh for the runner runner flush. I almost tilted on this but started to think maybe this guy actually had the pot odds to call this down. What does everyone think. Was this a good play by him or should I have tilted [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Thanx Jim
|
|
#7
11-16-2003, 02:26 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AXs odds
It depends, again, on what the X was, but in all likelyhood he had a lot of outs. He figured he had the aces, he probably had an inside straight draw, and with the backdoor flush draw it's not bad to take one off. When he picked up the flush draw on the turn it's a given that he'll call to the river.
His mistake was to play AXs preflop UTG. But he got lucky this time. Will
|
|
#8
11-16-2003, 02:29 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AXs odds
sorry he had ATh
|
|
#9
11-16-2003, 07:03 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AXs odds
Honestly, I think pretty much any Ax is going to see a turn here. If X is 3 or 6, he has a pair, an overcard, and BD flush so I would call. If X=5 he has a Open ended straight draw. If X=2 or 7, he has a gutshot. Anything higher, most players will call just because they have overcards.
|
 |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
