The myth of luck...again

[bomblade]

I'm pretty sure I have made a post about "luck" before. I don't know if this will offer any new ideas or not. If not, sorry for wasting time.
The reason I want to post this though is cause of a situation/conversation I had last Saturday.
I'm playing 20/40 and a local player had recently left. He had 3 full racks and about 500 in green. He only was up about 700 though, due to the buy and rebuy. He got his money back by making some very good plays, and hit a few tough hands. About a half an hour after he left, one of the players mentioned to an observer how lucky X was. He stated further how someone was telling him how poker isn't a game of luck, and he chuckled. I turned and said that luck doesn't exist. What got me upset is how condescending he was to me. He is a much older man, and very conservative looking. I am young, and not conservative looking at all. He laughs at me, and says how I can say that.
As I explained to him, and another person at the table, who seemed interested, he got up and left. Very rude. I only hope I play with him again so I can take all his money.
What I'd like is for someone to give me the reasons or facts on why luck does exist. I don't believe it truly exists in any facet of life. If it does, it really means that some people are lucky, and some unlucky. Furthermore, if luck exists, than there are other factors to determine this luck. You can call it god, if you like.
If I have AA and I'm against 72, and there is a two on the flop and the river, most would say luck. If that's the case, wouldn't that mean that somehow on the shuffle, something occurred to make that other 2 come out on the river? Something other than the dealer's shuffle? How about the same hand and the flop is 722, and the turn is an A? Did I just get lucky? How did they get lucky on the flop and I got lucky on the turn? Over time, those AAs are going to beat 72o many times over, say 15-1. So how is that 1 time lucky? If that's luck, that would mean AA SHOULD win 100 percent of the time vs 72o.
I'd love for an intelligent response to this post.

[Jimbo]

It all depends on your definition. See I consider you lucky to still be around with that chip on your shoulder! [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img] Before you get mad I was just kidding! Luck: the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual

Seems to me there is such a thing as luck. The way you are trying to define luck has little relevance as to whether or not it exists as to other generally accepted definitions.

[Dwayne]

The people that are most superstitious are people that have the least understanding and control over the events in their life. Understanding and control require dedication, effort, and responsibility. It is much easier and more fun to speculate and convince one self of the possibility of UFO's and perpetual motion than to study and understand relativity and the second law of thermodynamics. There are two other things that support the faith in luck. First, the laws of probability are based on an infinite number of trials. We will never witness anywhere near an infinite number of trials in our lifetime. Second, our memory is biased. The pleasant or unpleasant outcomes stick in our minds much more so than the countless ordinary outcomes.

I do not believe in luck and I do not lecture at the poker table. If people want believe in luck, hunches, or ESP, I will encourage them to keep believing and keep trying. There are no lucky seats, lucky dealers, lucky tokens, and asking for a deck change is not going to improve your game. All it will do is identify you as a chump to the rest of the table. If this hurts your feelings I'm sorry. Forget what you just read and come join my game.

[Al Schoonmaker]

Other people can do a better job than I about explaining the non-existence of luck. But you should NEVER do it at the card table. You don't want to educate the dummies. If poker is not a game of luck, then it must be a game of skill, and you don't want to encourage them to develop their skill.

Let them stay in blissful ignorance so you can take their money.

Al

[Dwayne]

In Christianity, educating the ignorant is known as one of the seven Corporal Works of Mercy. If I am in the game, keep believing in your luck and expect no such mercy from me.

[Fitz]

I understand exactly what you mean, and for the most part, I agree with you. Those who get caught up in the idea of a person, thing or action being lucky or unlucky are deluding themselves. I do think we need to realize there is an element of chance in the game we play. Many would call this an element of luck; I think this is a matter of semantics. It has been pointed out the law of large numbers and probablility are based on an infinite number of trials. Since we can never get to that infinite number, we must realize we will see sometimes serious swings in the outcome of our trials. Pocket aces should win approximately 30% of the time against 9 random hands. This doesn't mean if we play 100 times, the aces will win 30 times. It is this swing in the line of probablity that makes up our variance. It is also this swing that puts players on tilt and forces them to ask for a new set up.

Fitz

The existence of luck can be a subject for an endless debate. If you wish your friend 'good luck' when he's going for a job interview and gets the job over 100 other candidates, did he get lucky or was he probably be the best candidate for the job? If a person wins the 70 million to 1 Big Game lottery with $10 worth of tickets, did he get lucky or he stumbled on the so-called highly improbable statistical aberration. Because the overwhelming majority of the population are un-schooled in the laws of probability and statistics luck seems to be the most common and convenient word to define the favorable (lucky) or unfavorable (unlucky) outcome of an expected or unexpected event. If your opponent outdraws your pocket rockets with his 2-outer on the river and you're in the mood for a sarcastic comment, you dont say to your opponent:'you just defied the laws of probability'. You simply say: you just got lucky.'

Does this make any sense?

[Clarkmeister]

The result of any random event is "luck"

If we flip a coin, one of us will get lucky and one will get unlucky.

If I have two outs against your poker hand with one card to come, one of us will get lucky and one will get unlucky.

Every single hand involves luck.

Righto. [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

Why people insist on putting the word luck in question marks is a little beyond me. For the love of god man, good and bad things happen to people everyday. If my mom gets broadsided by a drunk driver and dies, is that unlucky? Yes, yes it is. If somebody wins a lotto 6/49 lottery, is that lucky? Yes, yes it is. If 2 equally skilled people play poker for 2 years, and 1 of them is up 200 big bets more than the other one, has he been luckier than the other? Yes, yes he has. If you want to redefine the word for yourself, knock yourself out. But, by standard definitions, over the course of their careers, some players are luckier than others. Whether it be by simple statistics or divine intervention, it doesn't matter much. The insistence of some poker players that luck doesn't exist is ridiculous. It's mostly a question of semantics I suppose, but only because you're attempting to redefine the word. Luck exists. Maybe not in a sense that some people are born lucky, but over the course of their lives, not everyone has the same fortune. This can not be disputed. Even if a bunch of equally skilled players played to infinity, some will be luckier than others in a sense that some will be up much more money than others.