Does hero have the implied odds to call this flop and turn bet?

rikz · #1 03-02-2005, 12:02 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

Villain sees a lot of flops, but only bets strong hands. I have never seen him reraise without 2 pair or better in about 50 hands at the table with him. His reraise on the flop is at least 2 pair, most likely a set, and possibly a straight.

On the flop and turn, as hero, I thought I had the implied odds for a 6, a 3 or a 7 to fall since villain will certainly go all in with this hand all the way to the river. Was I right to call the $5 flop re-raise and $10 turn bet?

Here is the hand.

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 ($8.15)
MP2 ($13.05)
MP3 ($34.7)
CO ($92.7)
Hero ($37.95)
SB Villain ($51.35)
BB ($50.45)
UTG ($23.75)
UTG+1 ($22.75)
UTG+2 ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero (poster) is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB Villain posts a blind of $0.1.
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, SB Villain completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Villain bets $0.25, BB calls $0.25, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $2, CO folds, Hero raises to $5, Villain raises to $10, BB folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls $5.

I was certain that I was way behind and that any reraise or push here would be called immediately by villain. However, I figured he most likely had a set, so a 6, a 3 or a 7 would give me a hand to double up my stack with. I was 4:1 against getting my outs, so did I have pot odds to call, or didn't I?

Turn: ($23.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Here I had the same situation as the flop. Call $10 to have a 4:1 chance of winning the pot plus the rest of my stack that he would either bet for me or call on the river if I hit my straight or set of 6s. So is calling ok here?

River: ($43.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain calls $31.10 (All-In), Hero folds.

I was sure I was beaten, so I folded.

Final Pot: $74.85

Results in white below: 
Villain showed 2d Ah (straight, five high).
Outcome: Villain wins $74.85. 

This is a passive line once I got reraised on the flop. But was it a good line or a bad line based on the implied odds?

Thank you.

Albert Moulton

bingledork · #2 03-02-2005, 01:31 PM

I'd say the flop call is fine, the turn call is marginally bad.

I think your flop raise was a mistake. You already had a bettor and a raiser on a coordinated board and all you had was a draw. Your raise caused MP to fold, which costs you equity. Once the villian minraised you, you had to call the extra $5.

On the turn, you should fold. You can't be sure your set would be good if you hit a 6, and you can't be sure he'd pay you off on a 3456 board. Would he pay you off if a 2 hit?

If you assume that villian is an idiot and will call off his stack when a 2,7, or 6 hits, and you assume that he doesn't already have a straight, then you have 4:1 odds and you have the implied odds to call.

BUT If you take a more realistic approach that your set might not be good if you hit it, and if you do hit it, you won't get paid off. Worse, if villian has 67 (unlikely) and you hit a 2 or 6, you will lose the rest of your stack.

When you make a decision based on implied odds, you need to have a considerable overlay on the odds before it makes sense to call. In this case, only in the most ideal situation is this call +EV. Over the range of possible hands and river action, calling is -EV.

jonnyUCB · #3 03-02-2005, 01:42 PM

absolutely not. I like your raise here (took out some players), but after that you're calling 15 dollars on the flop/turn. Any club kills your action, any 7 or 2 could kill your action, 6's aren't even outs (as you thought), you could easily be splitting. I dont know why you think villian would commit his stack with any turn and river: the best cards on the turn and river came for him so if you're making that judgment based on that you're wrong.

Flop call is better than turn call imho, seeing as I would bluff at a club.

jimdmcevoy · #4 03-02-2005, 01:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say the flop call is fine, the turn call is marginally bad.

I think your flop raise was a mistake. You already had a bettor and a raiser on a coordinated board and all you had was a draw. Your raise caused MP to fold, which costs you equity. Once the villian minraised you, you had to call the extra $5.

On the turn, you should fold. You can't be sure your set would be good if you hit a 6, and you can't be sure he'd pay you off on a 3456 board. Would he pay you off if a 2 hit?

If you assume that villian is an idiot and will call off his stack when a 2,7, or 6 hits, and you assume that he doesn't already have a straight, then you have 4:1 odds and you have the implied odds to call.

BUT If you take a more realistic approach that your set might not be good if you hit it, and if you do hit it, you won't get paid off. Worse, if villian has 67 (unlikely) and you hit a 2 or 6, you will lose the rest of your stack.

When you make a decision based on implied odds, you need to have a considerable overlay on the odds before it makes sense to call. In this case, only in the most ideal situation is this call +EV. Over the range of possible hands and river action, calling is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, except you haven't mentioned one of the pros to raising the flop is that he might buy the river card for free. No matter what hand MP3 has there's a chance he'll slowplay it.