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  #1  
Old 10-19-2002, 07:18 PM
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Default Long odds, big pot

Playing at a loose passive table.
3rd street
(**)Ah
(**)Jh
(**)8c
(**)Jd
(**)Ks
(**)Qd
(**)Ts
(3c3d)2c

I bring it in, Ah raises, and everyone calls to me, the pot is offering me 13 to 1 odds on calling, so I call. I am 99% sure that the A is paired, because he wouldn't bet unless he was, but he is the type who gets married to big pairs.

4th street.

(**)AhJs
(**)Jh10d
(**)8c2h
(**)Jd4h
(**)Ks4d
(**)Qd7c
(**)TsAd
(3c3d)2c4c

AJ bets, everyone except 82 calls, pot is offering me 15.3 to 1, so I call.

5th street

(**)AhJs9d
(**)Jh10d7h

(**)Jd4h7s
(**)Ks4d9s
(**)Qd7cKh
(**)TsAd9c
(3c3d)2c4c3s
AJ bets, JT folds, J7 folds, K9 calls, KQ calls, AT calls, I raise, AJ calls K9 calls, KQ folds AT calls.

6th street

(**)AhJs9d9h
(**)Ks4d9s7d
(**)TsAd9c4s
(3c3d)2c4c3sTc

Pair of nines bet, K9 calls, AT folds, I don't think Ah started rolled up so I raise, both call. On the river I catch the case 3, I bet, and the pair of nines calls and shows aces up.
I think my play on the last three streets is fairly automatic, but, I was wondering about my play in the beginning. Was the pot large enough that I should play such a dog on both 3rd and 4th street? I mean I was getting 13 and 15.3 to one odds, but the odds that I would hit it on the next card in each case was 20 and 16 to 1 respectively. But I figure I have a fair bit of implied odds in that I am probably going to win a fair bit more money than's already in the pot if I hit it, but there's also a very real chance that I could it hit it and loose. What is the proper way of looking at the odds there? I guess the question I am getting at is, was I lucky, or was it a good play. Obviously I was lucky, in the way that whenever a longshot comes in, you are lucky, but was it an acceptable gamble on my part to play this long shot?
Also, on 5th street, I was perfectly willing to drop if nothing came to help my hand, but how much help did I need. I would definitely continue to play if a club hit (probably raise for a free card and scare value if it was either the A,5 or 6) I would probably call if the As, or any 5 or 6 not of clubs hit, and check fold if I caught either the 2 or the 4. At this point the pot is offering me 12 1/6 to 1 on a call. Is this a good way of playing it if these cards come?
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  #2  
Old 10-19-2002, 07:34 PM
Dynasty Dynasty is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 4,044
Default Re: Long odds, big pot

I would call everytime against any opponent with that hand on both third and fourth street.

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  #3  
Old 10-20-2002, 12:48 AM
Andy B Andy B is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 1,245
Default Re: Long odds, big pot

You don't say what the structure is of this game, but I assume that there is some kind of ante since you say you're getting 13:1 on your third street call. In any case, yeah, call on third street. I'd call on fourth street too. Fours and Deuces are falling dead, but it's not like two little pair is going to win this pot anyway. Treys are live and clubs are reasonably live. The fact that there are two Fours and a Deuce out does hurt your full house chances, and with that many players in, there's a chance that you're going to need to fill.

If you don't catch help on fifth, I think you have to fold. Yeah, the pot's big, but you've got all these little cards. A set of Treys might not even be good if you make it. The flush or straight you might make may not be high enough. Making a dead second pair probably isn't going to do you that much good. I don't like little cards in this game.
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  #4  
Old 10-20-2002, 01:06 PM
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Default Re: Long odds, big pot

the play on third and fourth is automatic. i would call every time in this situations and i am sure most others would as well.

Pat
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