Chip Leader or Bust

wegs the wegs · #1 06-23-2005, 12:55 PM

This is the Stars rebuy that's going on right now. This hand was taken shortly after the add-on period. The average stack was about 9k at this time. Chip leader 42k. I get AKo in MP3.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

SB (t6045)
BB (t5000)
UTG (t4100)
UTG+1 (t14125)
MP1 (t18590)
MP2 (t11950)
Hero (t22880)
CO (t5460)
Button (t13465)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t900, UTG+1 raises to t4500, MP1 calls t4500, 1 fold,

If I win this pot I take control of the table with a strong chip lead in the tournament. UTG and UTG+1 were relatively loose, so could have anything from AK-A9 and AA-77. MP1 would call with pratically anything here just for the ripe odds. If I pushed I knew all would call. Now I know with the short stacks here the odds get funny calculating the side pots... but I figured there would be more than enough to make this push profitable. If I lose this hand I get 5k left and will need a miracle to climb back in. So I figured I would take a shot...

Hero raises to t22880, 4 folds, UTG calls t3200 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t9625 (All-In), MP1 calls t14090 (All-In).

Flop: (t59920) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: (t59920) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 3 all-in)

River: (t59920) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: t59920

Results in white below: 
UTG has Tc Ts (full house, tens full of queens).
UTG+1 has Jc Jh (flush, ace high).
MP1 has 6h 6s (flush, ace high).
Hero has Kc Ad (two pair, aces and queens).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins t30075. UTG wins t16625. MP1 wins t8930. Hero wins t4290. 

A few questions were asked at the table, but I still think it was the right move. I wanted to be leader, and while it was early in the tournament I thought that I had an edge here and I couldn't pass it up. Sucks about the running hearts but oh well. Thoughts?

PS... Calling is out of the question here right? Push/Fold was my only line of thought here.

schwza · #2 06-23-2005, 01:01 PM

absent the reads, this is a clear fold.

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 would call with pratically anything here just for the ripe odds

[/ QUOTE ]

you mean that you had a specific read on him, right? cause that's horrible logic on his part.

[ QUOTE ]
If I pushed I knew all would call

[/ QUOTE ]

there's no way you know that. they should all be folding without strong hands, except maybe MP3 if he's playing heads up. your range here is/should be KK+, mabye AK, maybe QQ.

they would all have to be really bad (especially MP3) for me to push here.

ClaytonN · #3 06-23-2005, 01:03 PM

Yuck.

DemonDeac · #4 06-23-2005, 01:09 PM

you should leave out results for better discussion, FWIW
this is a really tough hand, IMO. with two UTG raises and then a flat call, im inclined to muck this even with your reads of these loose players cuz we're prolly at a coin flip at best here and loose players sometimes get good hands. you've also got plenty of chips to find a better spot anyway.
this is a really tough hand.

does anyones decision to muck change if the hand is suited?

ClaytonN · #5 06-23-2005, 01:14 PM

What he's got to understand is the diminishing marginal utility of stack power.

He's already the chip leader at his table, all he has to do is play smart TAG poker and build up his stack that way.

This move only makes sense if you could potentially be having sex soon. You know, like Soss.

wegs the wegs · #6 06-23-2005, 01:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
they would all have to be really bad (especially MP3) for me to push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hence the move. They weren't good, I knew that much. And why is it horrible logic to put him on any two and disregard him? I knew I had UTG at a coinflip at worst and I knew that I had MP1 had no better than a mid-pair, most like KQ AJ or even mid range suited cards. My only person in question was UTG+1. Figured his range of hands was wide enough as well that I had the odds to push him. And they were all calling... no question about it.

adanthar · #7 06-23-2005, 01:16 PM

If you put one or both of them on KQ or AJ this move sucks even worse, because you're losing at least two of the pots way more than your share.

Autofold.

schwza · #8 06-23-2005, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
they would all have to be really bad (especially MP3) for me to push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hence the move. They weren't good, I knew that much. And why is it horrible logic to put him on any two and disregard him? I knew I had UTG at a coinflip at worst and I knew that I had MP1 had no better than a mid-pair, most like KQ AJ or even mid range suited cards. My only person in question was UTG+1. Figured his range of hands was wide enough as well that I had the odds to push him. And they were all calling... no question about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
cause that's horrible logic on his part.

[/ QUOTE ]

A_PLUS · #9 06-23-2005, 01:28 PM

The main point, is that you are doo deep for this to be profitable.

From Paul Phillips Blog
Reverse implied odds

mlagoo · #10 06-23-2005, 01:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The main point, is that you are doo deep for this to be profitable.

From Paul Phillips Blog
Reverse implied odds

[/ QUOTE ]

i may have this wrong, but isn't reverse implied odds a reason not to *call* with AK preflop -- because if an A or a K falls, you are likely going to scare away any pocket pair (QQ, JJ, etc) (as opposed to calling, of course, with a pocket pair, in which case you can spike a set without it being very apparent)? If my understanding is correct, it doesn't really apply in a situation where all the chips get in preflop.