Bankroll/Statistics Question

[TheManInBlack]

I know I have read the answer to these questions in the past but now that I need them, I can't find them.

I am playing 3/6 at Party and using PokerTracker. How many hands do I need to play before I can come up with a solid BB per 100 hands figure?

Also, assuming I have played the proper number of hands and have become a solid player, how many BB's per 100 hands should I be averaging?

Last question--I know a proper bankroll would be 300 times the BB, but what is the mininum bankroll you would consider playing with at the 3/6 level(assuming you are not taking withdrawals?)

[Zetack]

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I know I have read the answer to these questions in the past but now that I need them, I can't find them.

I am playing 3/6 at Party and using PokerTracker. How many hands do I need to play before I can come up with a solid BB per 100 hands figure?

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800 thousand to 1 million hands will get you close to knowing your winrate. You may think I'm kidding. I'm not.

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Also, assuming I have played the proper number of hands and have become a solid player, how many BB's per 100 hands should I be averaging?

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There is no should when it comes to winrate.

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Last question--I know a proper bankroll would be 300 times the BB, but what is the mininum bankroll you would consider playing with at the 3/6 level(assuming you are not taking withdrawals?)

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450 BB's.

--Zetack

[TheManInBlack]

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There is no should when it comes to winrate.

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Let me re-phrase. How many BB's/100 hands is a reasonable expectation?

[mistrpug]

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There is no should when it comes to winrate.

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Let me re-phrase. How many BB's/100 hands is a reasonable expectation?

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It depends on so many things, but the easy answer is 2-3.

[Rudbaeck]

You can calculate the confidence interval for your win rate thus:

We need to know sample size (n) and standard deviation (SD) from this we can calculate standard error (SE). For a normal distribution we know that 95% of all values lie within +/- 1.96 SE from the mean.

Let's say you have played 100,000 hands. Then our sample size is 1000, as we have 1000 chunks of 100 hands. Your win rate might be a respectable 2BB/100. Your standard deviation is 14.0BB/100.

SE=SD/sqrt(n)

SE=14/sqrt(1000)=14/31.63=0.443

To calculate a 95% confidence interval we need to know what 1.96*SE is, and that's 1.96*0.443=0.868

The lower bound of our interval is thus 2-0.868=1.132 and the upper bound is 2+0.868=2.868

So we can with 95% certainty say that 1.132<your true win rate<2.868

At 1,000,000 hands you can narrow it down to 1.73<your true win rate<2.27 Still over 0.5BB from top to bottom of the interval we can be confident in.

As you see the long run is really long.

[housenuts]

BB is big bets or big blinds? thanks, i should know this put can't look it up right now.

[SomethingClever]

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BB is big bets or big blinds? thanks, i should know this put can't look it up right now.

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Big bets.

[housenuts]

hmmm so $1800 for 3/6. i guess i'm very close to that. what about if you multitable? how does that affect it?

[Kirg]

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hmmm so $1800 for 3/6. i guess i'm very close to that. what about if you multitable? how does that affect it?

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Multitabling does not affect your bankroll needs as explained here
However, personally I like to have 400 BBs before I start playing a certain level fulltime.