Need Help on the Bubble 10/1

TWINUNO · #1 07-04-2005, 01:56 AM

I have been running fairly well, but i believe most of it is due to luck. I am not sure if i have been pushing in the right situations as of late, as he is a big stack and im pushing wit crap. I feel like i cant wait for my stack to dwindle and i dont want to lose all FE. Would this play be correct in a higher limit just out of curiousity.
So is this stupid?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter

BB (t3660)
UTG (t2050)
Button (t1505)
Hero (t785)

Preflop: Hero Pushes in SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, BB calls t635.

Flop: (t860) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t860) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t860) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t860

4T25Q85 · #2 07-04-2005, 02:09 AM

Your stack has no FE to begin with. If I were BB id call w/any two. Wait a couple of hands for a face card.

I will fully accept any flaming if this thinking is incorrect

11t · #3 07-04-2005, 02:21 AM

Eh, I will be honest I have pushed with worse and gotten away with it (which isn't saying what you did was good).

I'd be more inclined to push one of the other 2 stacks BB's with rags than push the big stacks, however mathematically speaking you have by far the best chance of him being dealt a hand that he cannot call with. That being said, if you fold here you have two other hands you have the chance to push before all hope is lost and you lose any fold equity you might have vs people who don't want to be put into your situation.

I'd want to fold here but I'd push it if I thought the big stack was playing tight since he won't have a calling hand a large % of the time. If you fold this hand you have 2 more hands before you lose any FE you might have and the chances of people having a hand within their calling range increases for every hand you pass up.

If I felt the BB was tight I'd close my eyes and push, if not fold.

11t · #4 07-04-2005, 02:26 AM

Do people always call on PP not getting 2:1? I have played many a 2tournament where people fold in situations like this if they do not have a hand within their calling range.

He has 3 hands left wher he has any FE (including this one) and he has the highest % chance of villain not having a hand within his calling range (if villain is tight, if not this push is suicidal) so I don't think this is THAT awful of a push from the shorty who has nothing to lose.

PS. By fold equity I'm not necessarily stating that hero has a stack intimidating to the villain or that he can get him to lay down a decent hand but that his stack is such that it is not in the villain's best interest to call without a decent hand. Basically minimal FE.

I have drank quite a bit tonight though.

ChuckNorris · #5 07-04-2005, 02:34 AM

Do the ICM and see for yourself. The big stack needs to have pretty wild calling standards to make this a non-profitable steal opportunity.

ChuckNorris · #6 07-04-2005, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Your stack has no FE to begin with. If I were BB id call w/any two. Wait a couple of hands for a face card.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry but I think both your statements are wrong. How can you say that he has no FE with 5 big blinds? It's incorrect for the BB to call with a hand like 23o, even if he knew he were against a random hand. And the typical 10+1 opponent pushes with much better than random hands here in SB. It looks like you have some obvious leaks in your game.

Isura · #7 07-04-2005, 10:12 AM

This is a pretty easy push at the 11s without a read. Big stacks have no idea how to play, and he's not calling with more than 25% of the top hands. I've pushed much worse in this situation. You still need to double up to catch up to 3rd, and the blinds will increase your stack by 25%. Easy push.