Tournaments on Paradise?

Over the last couple of weeks, I have been playing tournaments on Paradise. I am doing unbelievably well. I have played 48 tournaments so far. They are mostly the 10 dollar ones, but I have played a few 20's and a couple of 30's. I have invested $671 and I have returned $1230. I am a decent player, but I seem to be doing especially well in these tourneys. How many do I need to play to get a realistic feel for my expected return? Are my results drastically different that others have seen. All comments are appreciated.


Thanks in advance,


Fitz

How many times do you have to flip a coin to realize that the odds are 50/50 between heads and tails?

I'll answer my own question.....

Standard Deviation = Square Root of N x P x Q where N = # of throws, P = probability of heads, Q = probability of tails = P = 50% so if you toss a coin 100 times, the probability of getting heads or tails is 50 + or - the Standard Deviation of 5. That is 66% of the time (one standard deviation), you will get heads 45 to 55 times. 95% of the time (2 standard deviaitons), you will get heads between 40 to 60 times.


So you see, the answer to your question is more complex but to make it simple. Record the results of 100 tournaments and by then you should get a feel for your chances.


You should finsish in the money about 40% of the time. The more 1st and 2nds, the better.

These tournaments are much faster than people realize. That means enormous variance. I play in these frequently and have had one run where I made the money in 34 of 60 tournaments. After more than 100 tournaments, I have made the money 28 times with 16 first place finishes, 4 second place and 8 thirds. That means $800 for first, $120 for second, and $160 for third. Total prize money= $1080. Total buy-ins $1100. So, I've finished in first place 60% more often than statistically expected and I'm still a $20 loser. That, my friend, is what a 10% rake will do to you if you are as good as you say.


Good luck and have fun. I do.


Craig H