Oh no, I have Crabs!

Double Eagle · #1 03-01-2005, 02:34 AM

From this afternoon's 11r on Stars. Avg stack is 13k or so, I have been playing very tightly and have just doubled up with AA. Villain in this hand is decent and fairly agressive. I was very confused by the min-raise here, and when I get confused I want to push. Comments?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 (t11605)
MP3 (t13545)
CO (t2680)
Button (t4020)
SB (t5905)
BB (t9925)
UTG (t10855)
Hero (t16235)
MP1 (t24171)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t1000, 2 folds, MP3 calls t1000, 4 folds.

Flop: (t2200) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t1600, MP3 raises to t3200, Hero raises to t15210,

ThrillFactor · #2 03-01-2005, 02:42 AM

I think you're behind, the question is will your all-in push him off.

the combo of the flat call PF, then the min-raise on the flop make me think 88 or TT on up. He's milking you.

DemonDeac · #3 03-01-2005, 02:45 AM

not so sure about the raise PF. dont think ur accomplishing much. if anyone calls you, there are really no flops, besides hitting your set, that look good in your eyes. if you're tryin to steal the blinds, you're gonna need to raise more than 1000.

with the amt of chips you have, im probably limping for set value and mucking to a preflop raise.

Double Eagle · #4 03-01-2005, 05:20 AM

OK, I know the raise pre-flop is debatable, but I am really interested in the post-flop play.

I fired at the flop as a continuation bet in the same fashion I would with an overpair and was prepared to be done with it pretty quickly. The min-raise really sent my BS detector pinging as I could only think of a few hands other than a set that a solid player would flat call pre-flop and then min-raise the flop with that were ahead of me.

The hands he could have that might take this line are AA/99/66/44. Of the other hands that are ahead of me, I would expect him to re-raise pre-flop with KK/QQ. If he held JJ or TT he might flat call but I would have expected to see more than a min-raise to protect these vulnerable hands. 88/77 I would not have expected him to call with pre-flop, though they are slight possibilities and can't discount them completely.

As far as overcards he might call with, AK/AQ/AJ/KQs are all possibilities, though I might discount AK slightly as I would expect him to re-raise pre-flop a fair amount of the time. The question is, would he min-raise this raggedy flop trying to test me for overcards or cheaply peel me off of a small pair? I thought that this line was just as possible as the pair/set scenarios and without running the numbers guaged myself as having a better than even chance of being ahead here.
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 56.4517 % [ 00.56 00.00 ] { 3s3c }
Hand 2: 43.5483 % [ 00.44 00.00 ] { AA, 88-77, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AJo }

---

81,180 games 0.371 secs 218,814 games/sec

Board: 9h 6c 4d

I figured my push would also pick up quite a bit of fold equity, possibly getting him to drop the small pairs that are ahead of me, so push it was.

I know this probably looks pretty reckless in hindsight. Feedback?

Rushmore · #5 03-01-2005, 09:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
88/77 I would not have expected him to call with pre-flop, though they are slight possibilities and can't discount them completely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think they're better than slight possibilities.

I also think that sometimes, when you have 40 BB's and someone looks like they're making a move on you based upon the preflop action, it can be valuable to suspend your disbelief about his holding before you reraise half of your lovely hard-fought chips with a pair of threes.

I understand your play here. I just think that your investment in your read against another big stack right now is probably ill-conceived, regardless of the results.

People will actually smooth call big hands preflop sometimes for exactly this reason, as I'm sure you know.