have i changed to a less profitable style?

[Pog0]

Playing $1/$2, I've experienced a large change in winrate but have also noticed a change in my basic stats and am trying to see if there is a causal pattern to them.

In June/July I was winning 3.1 BB/100 over 22k hands with 19%/10%/1.7
In August so far, I am winning 1.16 BB/100 over 11k hands with 15%/9.5%/2.4

I know that I'm giving very little information to work with here. Had my basic stats been similar to what they were during my better winning period, I would have no problem attributing the winrate change to variance, but since there's a significant change to my style of play, namely, tighter and more aggressive, I'm trying to figure out if I've changed to a less profitable style of play for the level or am being subject to one or a combination of worse overall play and worse luck.

Any insight? Do I need to be seeing more flops or have I improved my game and got hit by variance?

[sy_or_bust]

Postflop means a lot. But your VPIP switch will certainly cost you a good deal of money if you play well.

Check this stats post out (the avg here is even too tight and passive preflop IMO):
I hate you tiger woods

[Harv72b]

On Party 1/2 full, if you are a good postflop player (which you probably are, given a solid enough win rate over a decent sample size), a VPIP of around 20-22% is probably optimal. That's my own opinion, of course, and I have no empirical evidence to back it up...it just seems that in games which are typically so loose/passive, there are a lot of normally borderline/questionable plays which you can make with near-impunity. Things like limping small pocket pairs & suited ace/rag combos from up front, suited connectors from MP or maybe even EP, etc. This is quite simply because a PFR behind you is less likely than it would be on higher, more aggressive limits, and because you are far more likely to be paid off by worse hands when you hit.

I like the increased aggression postflop, but I think you're cutting out too many hands. I doubt that this alone is responsible for a 1.5 BB/100 drop, but combined with normal variance it certainly could be.

[meep_42]

I aggression increase could simply be a by product of playing fewer hands that can peel on the flop and turn, and is not necessarily indicative of any increased aggression.

-d

[BlackRain]

I have done very well at 1/2 full ring with your original stats. I have no basis for comparison because I have never played as low as 15% but my gut feeling says, you are leaving money on the table. I do have comparison with higher VPIP's, 25-30% with a concomitant PFR increase and have not done as well.