Capped preflop - Raise river with JJ and an A on board?!

[Homer]

UB 5/10...nice and loose, fairly aggressive. This hand got me pumped up. I really felt like I used all my poker skills and player knowledge.

I'm dealt JJ in the CO. Three limpers to me and I limp as well. BB raises (I've seen him do this with any PP), EP calls and MP reraises (this player is very loose and will similarly do this with any big cards and any PP), MP2 coldcalls, I coldcall, BB calls and now EP caps (I'm certain this is a "[censored] it, I'll cap it myself" cap) and we all call. So, 5 of us see the flop for a total of 20 small bets.

Flop - As 4c 2c

It gets checked around!

Turn - 8s

BB bets, all call to me and I call getting 14:1 and believing that there is a reasonable chance I have the best hand. BB has NEVER slowplayed, to my knowledge (I have it in his notes so he must really never do it). I'm almost certain he has KK/QQ/JJ.

River - 5c

BB checks (yep big PP but no Ace), EP checks, MP bets, MP2 folds, I raise, BB and EP fold and MP calls. I have a hard time believing that MP has a 2, because even though he is a fish he isn't crazy enough to three-bet with a hand containing a 2 (unless he has exactly 22). Also, this players will bet a draw every time, so there is no way he has the flush.

Questions - What did EP and MP have and did I win the hand? What do you think of my river raise?

Results in next post.

-- Homer

[travisand]

What did EP and MP have

I think that EP had a pocket pair bigger than yours and MP had a pocket pair of tens.

did I win the hand?

Yes, unless you get pumped up about losing.

What do you think of my river raise?

I like it. I think that this won the hand for you by pushing EP off of a bigger pocket pair.

[Homer]

I'm surprised no one else has an opinion on this hand. I thought it was the most interesting hand I've played in quite some time.

-- Homer

[Wingnut]

"BB has NEVER slowplayed"

Does your definition of slowplay including check-raising the flop? It's possible that it was a failed attempt (with all of the pre-flop action, it would be natural to assume that someone is going to bet the flop), and he has a set.

My feeling would be that BB had a set that he figured with two players raising a flush card he must be beaten.

EP may have had two pair (A4s or A2s, also trying a checkraise?) that the river raising bumped him off of, and the turn 8 scared him into just calling the turn.

If you say MP always bets a draw, he may be bluffing with two big cards or betting a PP. I hope for your sake if the latter it was TT.

Am I even close?

[Homer]

Yes, it includes checkraising. His level of sophistication is bet with good hands and call with mediocre to drawing dead hands. Folding is rarely an option before the turn/river.

I'll post the results later today.

-- Homer

[Joe Tall]

Homer,

It is a very interesting hand and what is most interesting is the amount of action making it complicated. [img]/forums/images/icons/confused.gif[/img]

I'm not sure what EP folded. I like your river raise and I think you took it down when MP showed poket 9s or Ts. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[ElSapo]

"His level of sophistication is bet with good hands and call with mediocre to drawing dead hands."

whew... I don't play your limit, that's the only way I know this guy wasn't me this morning...

[Homer]

BB had QQ
MP had AJo

Well, I lost the hand but was still very pleased with my play on the river. I was almost certain that BB had KK/QQ/JJ and would fold to a river raise on such a scary board. The only question was whether I had MP beaten. He could have had any pocket pair just as easily as an Ace, so I am sure my raise was good as I was risking 2 bets to win 16 (or thereabouts), so I only had to have MP beat 11% of the time to make the raise profitable. I think folding the river would have been the next best play, followed by calling.

-- Homer

[rharless]

Here is the evolution of my thinking:

"Homer is insane."

"Maybe he's not insane."

"I guess it's ok to limp with JJ in this case."

"Homer is about a gazillion levels past me in poker thinking as I just don't get it."

"Maybe this is FPS?"

"Homer knows something I don't, so I'll just keep my mouth shut and not look foolish." [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

You've posted several UB5-10 hands so I will easily grant you that you can read these players well. Given the reads that you listed, though, with some reasonable confidence on the turn about holding the best hand, I would think the right time to raise this is on the turn. I'd rather just pick up the pot right there if I can.

[Homer]

You know, I had a feeling that a lot of people weren't responding to this post for fear of appearing foolish. I knew this was an interesting hand, so it didn't make sense to me that very few people were responding. There's no reason to be scared of looking foolish, because you may see something that I didn't see. I really do want feedback. If you think this was FPS, let me know! If you think I made a nice read, let me know! Okay, enough rambling...onto the hand! [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img]

I understand what you are saying about the raising the turn, and I did give it consideration. I was thinking that I might be able to get to showdown for the same price as going call, call and in the process knock out a better hand. The problem with this is that if I am reraised I must call, getting odds to spike a J on the river. Also, I don't believe that my raise is likely to knock out BB's presumed KK/QQ, because he will call a raise after having already put one bet in. Then, on the river, the pot will be so big that he will not fold for one more bet. Okay, so I decided not to raise. I also decided that folding was wrong because I was getting 14:1 and almost had enough odds to spike a set on the river. That, combined with the probability that I did actually have the best hand, made me settle on calling rather than folding. I also noticed that the side benefit to just calling the turn would be the opportunity to knock out the best hand on the river, provided my read was right. If my read was wrong and BB bet the river I would have folded had another player called before the action got to me. I might even have folded had it been folded to me, though I probably would have called. But, if I was right, I knew that BB would probably give up after his turn bet was called by many opponents and check the river. I also knew that MP would not be able to resist betting the river in such a large pot, even with a mediocre hand. I knew that if he bet I could raise and knock out what might be the best hand and get my second-best hand heads-up with the third-best hand.

This was one of the first times I have been able to play out all the possibilities in my head before they happened and consider how each possible action would impact the rest of the hand. I was able to see what moves would come based on what moves I made. I felt like I was in a chess match, playing out all the possible moves in my head before they actually happened, and coming up with the one that would give me the best chance of winning.

Anyhow, I'm rambling. Feel free to provide more feedback. This hand really did get me pumped up even though I lost. It felt good to be able to consider all the possible actions, and come up with what I thought was the best one even though it was somewhat unconventional. The potential for using one of my opponents as an unknowing ally to knock out the player with the best hand really excited me. I definitely find it a bit disturbing that I got pumped up over losing a 18 BB pot, though. What the hell is wrong with me? Perhaps I'll be a good poker player yet!

-- Homer