[12AX7]

Good Points.

Oddly it dawned on me though that theoretically your "up/down" ratio for the cards themselves is (1/number of players).

In other words you're dealt your fair share of winners over time.

However, the "bunching factor" isn't apparent in such a simple analysis. But I suspect it really does mean that this is a "many down, few up" game. Granted that's somewhat of a bozo-ish way to describe it.

I mean consider that every draw you start fails to complete significantly more often than it completes. So at any given time you may be in the "fails" part of any type of hand you play. (Not sure if that's clear at all.)

So that leads me to wonder if it is typically to see your bankroll slowly decline and then on occasion, when all your hands hit it quickly spikes up? Assuming you are a winning player then the upspikes would have to average being slightly more than the declines (obviously). But it still seems the characteristic of the game itself then, is to be bleeding chips over long periods, followed by a few big wins here and there.

On the other hand, my personal experience has been that I tend to make small gains over time, the suffer horrendous downdrafts.

Of course, that may mean I'm just -EV.

Not sure yet.