Re: Fluctuation probablities?
There really is no standard "ups and downs" proportion though.
A standard deviation for a session of poker is a product of the standard deviation of a HUGE variety of chance outcomes.
How the game is being played changes the nature of how volatile the typical events of chance will be.
In multi way pots, a small pair may be a long shot to win preflop, but pay out big time for sets. In loose games then, you have a high standard deviation. In heads up pots, small pairs are far more likely to win, but the amounts that they do win are small. That means in tight games, small pairs have lower standard deviations. Every situation your in will be more or less volatile depending on how many people see a flop on average, how aggressive they are, and a variety of other characteristics. Generally speaking, looser games have higher standard deviations (i believe).
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If you keep going forever, eventually you get to certainty that you are below your high-water mark. The probabilities add up to 1.
However, with Blackjack you have a positive expectation, so the probabilities add up to slightly less than one. It's only slightly less, because the expectation matters only in the long run; for the last 100 hands or so the probability is not much different from coin flipping.
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I took "high water mark" to be where you start prior to the session. Oops.
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