Re: Fluctuation probablities?
It might be a bit hasty to be using normal probabilites here. I mean in some B&M games you only get 30 hands/hr and maybe only play a few hands. Of course whether or not the results from an hour of poker is approximately normal is the eternal question of poker. But you are doing more than assuming normality for the hour. You are using a random walk model throughout the hour to get the factor of 2 (unless you are doing it a different way).
Btw it was Peter Griffin in "Other Stuff" that argued that your chances of being at you all-time high is sthg like 1-advantage.
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