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Old 10-05-2005, 10:51 AM
Abbaddabba Abbaddabba is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25
Default Re: Fluctuation probablities?

There is no... "standard" standard deviation of poker.

The degree to which the outcome fluctuates is dependant on how you play and the type of opponents you face. In contrast, craps or any table game will (in general) have a fixed standard deviation that is dependant on the nature of the game.

A tight aggressive player against weak/tight opponents will have a standard deviation that is relatively stable over a large sample. The outcomes are volatile (and the degree to which it is volatile is explained by the standard deviation), but the degree to which it is volatile is constant. That is to say, the standard deviation derived from one player's sample of 10k hands is likely to be nearly identical to the standard deviation derived of another player's sample of 10k hands if the conditions of the table and the style of the player are similar.

Of course, if you put that same player up against a field of loose aggressive players, the standard deviation will almost certainly go up relative to what it was against weak/tight opponents.

Because of that, you can't generalize a single standard deviation. The volatility of your outcomes will depend on who you play against and how you play.
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