[12AX7]

Hi Aaron,
I'll admit my ignorance here, where standard deviation is concerned.

However, suppose we know a player is breakeven, what is the inherent fluctuation of the game itself?

Is there anyway to quantify that?

Or suppose we know nothing of the player at all? What is the inherent "streaky-ness" of the game itself?

As a side thought/example, consider craps. If you play "Any 7" you would expect 5 loses for every win. So an idealized graph would look like "5 steps down, 1 step up".

With the payoffs as they are in craps, the 1 step up would always be a little shorter than the 5 steps down. By about 15%.

On the other hand, if you played the no pass line, I think you might have several tiny steps up and then a bigger down draft (not sure this statement is true, been years since I gave up on -EV games and analyzing them.)

Anyway, you get the idea, two betting situtions could have identical EV's but differing fluction characteristics.

Perhaps a germaine example is the difference between betting on Options Spreads like a Bull Put Spread where you expect to have a profit some 90% of the time... but lose 10%.

As everyone in here knows, you're EV for that situation would require you to know the expected profit and losses.

But this would be a case with "9 steps up, 1 step down". Irrespective of thier size.

So I'm trying to figure out the character of poker itself. The EV, of course depends on how good our betting is.

But to illustrate the question in a poker context.... you expect to lose most flushes you start chasing. So it's a "many steps down, 1 step up" graph. On the other hand, playing AA against 1 opponent is what, about 80% to your favor? So it's and just the opposite character-wise.

To use a Black Jack example. I once read that 98% of the time you should expect your BJ bankroll to be below your last highwater mark. That author (Snyder I think) was trying to point out that card counting wasn't for you if that characteristic bothers you.

So same basic question as I started with. "What's the inherent win loss ratio in the game itself?"