Re: Fluctuation probablities?
The key missing information in your post is standard deviation. Suppose you have a standard deviation of 20 BB per hour. Then 1 hour in 6 will be a 20 BB downswing. The chances of being down by 20BB at some point in the hour is roughly twice that value, or 1 in 3. Over 1 hour, the 1 BB positive expectation is negligible.
Standard deviation goes up with the square root of time or hands, so after 100 hours your standard deviation is 200 BB. But now your +100 BB expectation is significant.
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