probability of drawing
I assume the following is invalid logic, because I have never heard/read it discussed. What is the flaw? Or is it logical, but impractical?
I will use a flush draw for an example. I also use % for brevity.
10 player table
Player 1 pocket is suited –say hearts.
Flop is heart- heart-club
Probability to draw a heart on turn: 9/47 =19.15%
No heart on turn, then probability to draw heart on river: 9/46=19.56%
But in reality, there are 18 cards already dealt(9 other players x 2). There almost certainly is at least one heart in the batch of 18 and more probably 4.5 hearts already dealt(18 divided by 4 suits).
Why don’t we calculate chance to draw heart on turn as either:
9-4.5/47=9.57% or 9-4.5/29=15.52% (29= 47-18)
Chance to draw heart on river as either:
9-4.5/46=9.78% or 9-4.5/28=16.07%
|