Re: What is the distinction between rolling dice and flying in a plane
Hmm, I just saw The Day After Tomorrow too. Good comedy. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
To get at the distinction you are trying to get at, there is a theoretical construct called a Discrete Uniform Random Variable. We can calculate exactly the probability distribution for this random variable, depending on a parameter n.
When we roll a die, we are assuming that it's distribution is a discrete uniform random variable with n=6. However, the discrete uniform rv only exists in a theotical realm, so there are problems with this assumptions. Usually, the errors involved are so small they are not worth worrying about.
With plane crashes, we can estimate the probability that a given plane will crash based on previous data, with a variety of sophistication ranging from basic to too much. Generally the people who create such estimates understand they are estimates, and qualify their statements with confidence intervals or something. Generally the people who use such statistics don't.
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